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Quantitative Socio-Economic Policy Impact Analysis. A Methodological Introduction







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    Analyse socioéconomique quantitative des impacts des politiques. Introduction méthodologique 2009
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    Ce document présente plusieurs approches d’analyse socioéconomique quantitative des impacts des politiques. Après une réflexion sur les questions de base auxquelles une analyse quantitative d’impacts des politiques doit en général répondre pour nourrir les processus de prise de décision, sa première partie fournit des définitions et des idées à propos d’éléments pertinents pour les politiques tels que objectifs, instruments et modèles d'impacts. Elle décrit ensuite brièvement l'utilisation de l' analyse contrefactuelle dans l’étude des impacts socioéconomiques des politiques. Sa deuxième partie passe en revue des approches quantitatives analytiques fréquemment appliquées à l’évaluation des impacts des politiques, telles que l'analyse de filières, les modèles multimarchés (MMM), les modèles d'équilibre général calculable (EGC), etc. La description de leurs caractéristiques « techniques » est suivie de l’évaluation de leur application pratique en termes de besoins en données, en temp s et en savoir-faire. Chaque section se conclut par la description succincte de cas réels évoquant le champ d’application de la politique concernée, les hypothèses testées et les conclusions pertinentes en termes de politiques avancées par leurs auteurs. La dernière partie propose en conclusion quelques observations sur l’utilisation des outils d’analyse quantitative des impacts des politiques dans les processus de prise de décision.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    EL EFECTO DE LOS PAGOS DIRECTOS DE LOS PASES MIEMBROS DE LA ORGANIZACIN DE COOPERACIN Y DESARROLLO ECONMICOS (OCDE) EN LOS MERCADOS AGRCOLAS MUNDIALES. EVIDENCIA A PARTIR DE LOS MODELOS DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL Y PARCIAL 2005
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    The effect of direct payments granted to OECD farmers on world agricultural markets is one of the controversial issues in the Doha Development Agenda. This paper aims at providing additional evidence on the range of effects that such payments may have under general and partial equilibrium assumptions. Simulations are run on a modified version of the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Scenarios hypothesize the removal of decoupled payments only, and removal of all domestic support in OECD countries. They are run on a baseline referring to the year 2004. Results indicate that only few developing countries would gain substantially from the removal of decoupled payments and of domestic support in general; rather, a few major exporters may gain substantially, including some of the OECD countries themselves. The impact is sensitive to the modelling approach, and the partial equilibrium closure rule produces a higher impact than does general equilibrium. Results are compared t o those of other quantitative assessments, particularly the evidence recently provided by the COSIMO project, run jointly by the OECD and FAO.
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    Document
    Agricultural Policy Impact Analysis with Multi-Market Models: A Primer
    André Croppenstedt, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellú,Fabrizio Bresciani and Stefania DiGiuseppe
    2007
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    Many governments intervene directly in agricultural product, in particular food, markets. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the policy changes on the desired objectives is important as it helps inform and shape the policy debate on the reform alternatives and increases transparency of government policy. This paper reviews the literature on multi-market models which offer more accurate ex ante impact analysis than single-market models by including potentially important indirect effects. While fairly complex and requiring large amounts of data multi-market models are however much simpler than computable general equilibrium models. They are typically applied at the sector level and have proven quite popular in particular in agricultural policy reform impact analysis. While more recent work has emphasized the poverty reduction and income distribution objective the models can generate a range of information relevant to policy makers.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Analyse socioéconomique quantitative des impacts des politiques. Introduction méthodologique 2009
    Also available in:

    Ce document présente plusieurs approches d’analyse socioéconomique quantitative des impacts des politiques. Après une réflexion sur les questions de base auxquelles une analyse quantitative d’impacts des politiques doit en général répondre pour nourrir les processus de prise de décision, sa première partie fournit des définitions et des idées à propos d’éléments pertinents pour les politiques tels que objectifs, instruments et modèles d'impacts. Elle décrit ensuite brièvement l'utilisation de l' analyse contrefactuelle dans l’étude des impacts socioéconomiques des politiques. Sa deuxième partie passe en revue des approches quantitatives analytiques fréquemment appliquées à l’évaluation des impacts des politiques, telles que l'analyse de filières, les modèles multimarchés (MMM), les modèles d'équilibre général calculable (EGC), etc. La description de leurs caractéristiques « techniques » est suivie de l’évaluation de leur application pratique en termes de besoins en données, en temp s et en savoir-faire. Chaque section se conclut par la description succincte de cas réels évoquant le champ d’application de la politique concernée, les hypothèses testées et les conclusions pertinentes en termes de politiques avancées par leurs auteurs. La dernière partie propose en conclusion quelques observations sur l’utilisation des outils d’analyse quantitative des impacts des politiques dans les processus de prise de décision.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    EL EFECTO DE LOS PAGOS DIRECTOS DE LOS PASES MIEMBROS DE LA ORGANIZACIN DE COOPERACIN Y DESARROLLO ECONMICOS (OCDE) EN LOS MERCADOS AGRCOLAS MUNDIALES. EVIDENCIA A PARTIR DE LOS MODELOS DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL Y PARCIAL 2005
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The effect of direct payments granted to OECD farmers on world agricultural markets is one of the controversial issues in the Doha Development Agenda. This paper aims at providing additional evidence on the range of effects that such payments may have under general and partial equilibrium assumptions. Simulations are run on a modified version of the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Scenarios hypothesize the removal of decoupled payments only, and removal of all domestic support in OECD countries. They are run on a baseline referring to the year 2004. Results indicate that only few developing countries would gain substantially from the removal of decoupled payments and of domestic support in general; rather, a few major exporters may gain substantially, including some of the OECD countries themselves. The impact is sensitive to the modelling approach, and the partial equilibrium closure rule produces a higher impact than does general equilibrium. Results are compared t o those of other quantitative assessments, particularly the evidence recently provided by the COSIMO project, run jointly by the OECD and FAO.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Document
    Agricultural Policy Impact Analysis with Multi-Market Models: A Primer
    André Croppenstedt, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellú,Fabrizio Bresciani and Stefania DiGiuseppe
    2007
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    Many governments intervene directly in agricultural product, in particular food, markets. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the policy changes on the desired objectives is important as it helps inform and shape the policy debate on the reform alternatives and increases transparency of government policy. This paper reviews the literature on multi-market models which offer more accurate ex ante impact analysis than single-market models by including potentially important indirect effects. While fairly complex and requiring large amounts of data multi-market models are however much simpler than computable general equilibrium models. They are typically applied at the sector level and have proven quite popular in particular in agricultural policy reform impact analysis. While more recent work has emphasized the poverty reduction and income distribution objective the models can generate a range of information relevant to policy makers.

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