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Potential Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa of Reducing Food Loss and Waste in the European Union

A focus on food prices and price transmission effects









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    A contribution to the analyses of the effects of foreign agricultural investment on the food sector and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa 2011
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    The growing interest of foreign investors in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vast agricultural potential raises concerns about the investment impacts on the food sector and the economy at large. This paper analyzes the likely effects of foreign agricultural investment in Sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on the impacts on the food sector by simulating the effects of the reduction of investment risks triggering an entry of foreign investment flow. The analysis employs the Global Trade Analysis and Policy (GTA P) model and simulates three investment scenarios that affect land uses, labour market conditions, and technological progress. The data are aggregated over three main sectors: food, manufacturing and services. Simulation results show that although foreign agricultural investment in Sub-Saharan Africa would lead to an increase in food prices and a decline in domestic food supply that would in turn cause an increase in food imports, the increases in factor returns and in employment would boost hou seholds’ real income to offset the loss from higher food prices. The positive income effects would be magnified if the agricultural investment brought technological progress to the food sector. Moreover, foreign agricultural investment would widen the current account deficit but improve terms of trade, whose effect on total welfare is large. The improvement of the terms of trade in the model is mainly due to a strong increase in the export price of tradable goods from the manufacturing sec tor. The service sector would unambiguously experience the strongest output growth as it benefitted from the formation of capital goods. Overall, the simulation results show that entry of foreign agricultural investment would generate a net welfare gain.
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    International Price Shocks and Technological Changes for Poverty Reduction in Burkina Faso. A General Equilibrium Approach 2009
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    After sketching the mutual links between economic growth, agriculture, technology, poverty reduction and external factors; this paper analyses the implications of recent international price shocks on welfare and growth, notably energy and agricultural products, for Burkina Faso, a less industrialised, low-income, food-deficit, net oil-importing country. The socio-economic impacts of the above-mentioned external shocks are analysed by means of a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE).The pape r also discusses the extent to which technological changes in agriculture, specifically the introduction of “Good Agricultural Practices” (GAP) towards “conservation agriculture”, could mitigate the welfare and growth losses derived by international price shocks. The results of the analysis show that oil price hikes in recent years had much greater impacts on the welfare of the poorer layers of the population than other price shifts, such as international food prices. Additionally, it is shown t hat the technological changes explored in this paper, in spite of their significant impacts on agricultural productivity, by no means countervail the negative welfare and growth losses brought by international price shocks. The energy dependency is a channel that systematically siphons out domestic resources, seriously hampering domestic primary capital accumulation and related endogenous-growth potential. Policy implications for poverty reduction and food security are that in Burkina Faso, ther e is an urgent focus on energy issues by all means, including the adoption of appropriate agricultural technologies. These findings are likely to apply to other less-industrialised energy-importing countries with similar socio-economic structure.
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    Article
    Forest-based bioeconomy pathways with emerging lignocellulosic products: A modeling approach
    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
    2022
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    The forest-based sector plays an important role in a growing bioeconomy. Long-term resource availability and allocation will be a major challenge for the bioeconomy development. Therefore, this study aims to assess how forest product markets could develop in a growing bioeconomy and which interdependencies occur between traditional and emerging forest-based subsectors. Especially, the demand for wood-based textile fibres could dynamically grow over the next decades while there might be conflicting demand for wood resources from traditional subsectors. Thus, we include dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based textile fibres and chemical derivatives in our modelling assessment. For this purpose, we extend the product structure of a partial equilibrium model, the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM). We use an econometric approach to compute demand and trade elasticities of the emerging products. We parameterize the extended model with these elasticities and analyze three different bioeconomy scenarios. In the first scenario, the demand for woody biomass remains similar to the current pattern. In the second scenario, the use of woody biomass increases primarily to satisfy growing input demand from the energy sector. In the third scenario, biomass is increasingly used as input to produce diverse industrial and everyday products. The simulation results show that, in the third scenario, where the world is changing toward a sustainable bioeconomy, wood consumption pattern shifts away from fuelwood (-30% by 2050) and paper products (-32% by 2050) towards emerging products. In this context, the dissolving pulp subsector could outpace the continuously shrinking paper pulp subsector in 2050. For this development, the dissolving pulp subsector mainly uses released resources from the decreasing paper pulp production. Simultaneously, wood-based panels are increasingly applied (+196% by 2050) while the growth of sawnwood remains limited. Keywords: Economic Development, Value chain, Research, Sustainable forest management, Policies ID: 3484635

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