The future of food and agriculture (FOFA): Quantitative modelling framework

Abstract

To provide projections of relevant food and agriculture variables in foresight exercises, the FAO Global perspectives Studies team uses two main quantitative economic models: the FAO Global Agriculture Perspectives System (GAPS) and the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium (ENVISAGE) model. FAO GAPS is a partial equilibrium model that focuses on the relationships between production and consumption of food and agriculture goods, and food security and nutrition. The ENVISAGE model covers the whole economy and portrays the frame for the food and agriculture sectors. Both models allow scenarios to be internally consistent, as they ensure: i) respect of certain physical and economic balances, such as the matching of demand and supply for goods and services under scenario-specific assumptions on population growth, technological progress, and natural resource constraints under changing climate conditions; ii) compliance with selected theoretical restrictions, such as limits on food expenditure imposed by available income and matching value added generation and outlays.