Scaling up Anticipatory Action across Southeast Asia

Abstract

Over the past five years, capacities for Anticipatory Action (AA) systems for drought have been built across several countries in Southeast Asia. Such AA systems have been created in close collaboration between the national governments and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). These rely on a Combined Drought Index model to signal the looming threat of dry conditions on agriculture production, serving as a guide for initiating AA. El Niño was declared in July 2023 and is projected to last until April 2024, with ENSO-neutral conditions becoming the most likely category in May-July 2024. Historically, El Niño has been associated with erratic rainfall patterns and heightened temperatures, elevating the risk of drought in the sub region. In March 2024, the Combined Drought Index in Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic reached the activation threshold and the triggering of drought AA was confirmed after field verification. This brief provides an overview of these alerts and urges government bodies and partners to intensify anticipatory action efforts for protecting livelihoods, water security and food security, particularly in vulnerable hot-spots across the four countries.