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No. 11. Dairy - Measuring the impact of reform

FAO TRADE POLICY TECHNICAL NOTES









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    Dairy Market Review: Price and policy update. December 2019 2019
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    The FAO Dairy Price Index recorded 192 points in October, an increase of 9.8 points (5.4 percent) since January, but 83.4 points (30.3 percent) below its peak reached in February 2014. From January to May, the index value rose by 24 percent, but from June to October, the value dropped by 15 percent. Dairy price increases in the first three months in 2019 primarily stemmed from limited export supplies along with strong internal demand in Europe and seasonally tight export availabilities from Oceania. From April to May, international demand for dairy products remained robust, while export supplies were relatively limited due to drought in Oceania, especially Australia, but also dry weather in Europe during the summer. Since June, dairy prices weakened, reflecting a market optimism over possible increases in export supplies from Oceania, mainly New Zealand, in its 2019/20 production season. Milk production in the North and South America was stable, providing stability to international prices. In Europe, prices weakness stemmed from relative inactivity of dairy markets due to summer holidays. Increased export availability further added to price weakness towards September and October.
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    Dairy Market Review - December 2018 2018
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    Buoyed by rising export availabilities, dairy prices weakened in the second half of 2018. Milk production increased in key producing countries, including New Zealand in the 2018/19 production cycle. Aided by high production in some regions, global butter supplies improved in recent months, while cheese trade expanded in 2018 at a slow pace than in 2017. Trade in Skim Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP) expanded on ample supplies and competitive prices.
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    Dairy Market Review - April 2018 2018
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    World milk output reached 811 million tonnes in 2017, 1.4 percent higher than in 2016. Across geographic regions, milk output expanded in Asia, the Americas and Europe; stagnated in Africa; and declined in Oceania. World dairy exports in 2017 reached 71.6 million tonnes, 1.3 percent higher than in 2016. Milk exports from Africa, Central America, Europe and North America increased, but those from Asia, Oceania and South America declined. A key factor that influenced this expansion was the continued rise in import demand from China, United Arab Emirates, Japan, Mexico and Australia that counterbalanced import contractions from elsewhere, especially Egypt, Brazil, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Increased supplies from the EU, Mexico, Canada and the United States were adequate to cover export shortfalls from some leading exporters, including New Zealand, Argentina, Australia, Belarus, and Uruguay. The average dairy export price in 2017 was up 31 percent from 2016. In the first half of the year, prices remained stable as ample export supplies from the Northern Hemisphere were sufficient to meet import demand. But from May to September 2017 dairy prices strengthened, driven by strong import demand, especially from Asia, reflecting tighter exportable supplies from Oceania, South America and Europe. From September onwards, dairy prices started to weaken as export supplies increased from almost all major producing countries.

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