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Future climate change and regional fisheries: a collaborative analysis










Sharp, G.D. Future climate change and regional fisheries: a collaborative analysis. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper. No. 452. Rome, FAO. 2003. 75p.


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    This publication presents the outcome of a meeting between the FAO/UNEP ABNJ Deep-seas and Biodiversity project and the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative. It focuses on the impacts of climatic changes on demersal fisheries, and the interactions of these fisheries with other species and vulnerable marine ecosystems. Regional fisheries management organizations rely on scientific information to develop advice to managers. In recent decades, climate change has been a focus largely as a unidirectional forcing over decadal timescales. However, changes can occur abruptly when critical thresholds are crossed. Moreover, distribution changes are expected as populations shift from existing to new areas. Hence, there is a need for new monitoring programmes to help scientists understand how these changes affect productivity and biodiversity. The principal cause of climate change is rising greenhouse gases and other compounds in the atmosphere that trap heat causing global warming, leading to deoxygenation and acidification in the oceans. Three-dimensional fully coupled earth system models are used to predict the extent of these changes in the deep oceans at 200–2500 m depth. Trends in changes are identified in many variables, including temperature, pH, oxygen and supply of particulate organic carbon (POC). Regional differences are identified, indicating the complexity of the predictions. The response of various fish and invertebrate species to these changes in the physical environment are analysed using hazard and suitability modelling. Predictions are made to changes in distributions of commercial species, though in practice the processes governing population abundance are poorly understood in the deep-sea environment, and predicted
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    Ecohydrology-based management as a tool for preventing wildfires in the Mediterranean urban interface area
    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
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    The adaptation to climate change of forest areas with intense anthropic pressure requires innovative management models characterized by an increasingly efficient use of available resources. In Mediterranean areas, the most intense and persistent droughts alter the water relations in the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) continuum and therefore the flammability of the vegetation and the risk of wildfires. The main aim of this work is to present the potential of using detailed information characterizing the SPA for estimating key variables used for forest fire prevention. To this end, physiological, ecohydrological and meteorological measurements (water potential, soil/plant water content, sap flow, etc.) are carried out to model the response of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) to environmental conditions in representative Aleppo pine plots located in a forested area close to Valencia city (Spain). In addition, spectral indexes estimated from Sentinel bands (NDVI, EVI, NDMI, MSI, RGR, BSI and NDWI) are also tested for obtaining the spatio-temporal dynamics of LFMC at the forestscale. The results show the importance of assessing LFMC along the entire hydrological year due to its variation with phenology: minimum values are obtained at the beginning of spring (81.3%, 64mm of soil water content in the profile and 0.2Kpa of VPD) vs. 90.1% during the driest environmental (summer) conditions (18mm of soil water content and 1.9Kpa of VPD). Combining physiological and environmental predictors provides good estimations of LFMC (R 2 >0.70-0.84 in several cases). In addition, RGR, BSI and NDWI indexes are found to be promising predictors of LFMC (R2= 0.7). Efforts such as the one presented here to link a detailed SPA characterization with fire prevention are innovative and emerging, but also necessary when realistic estimations of LFMC dynamics are required. Particularly, our results will serve to improve the forest management of Mediterranean forests, allowing for the precise prediction and identification of forest wildfire behavior and risk thresholds (from surface fire to crown fire), but also the design of optimum irrigation schemes to decrease the risk of crown fires as those with the highest negative impacts. Keywords: live fuel moisture content; ecohydrology; fire weather index; wildland-urban interface; sapflow ID: 3623757

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