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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.3, 8 October 2015 2015World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a generally comfortable situation. While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand, requiring only a small reduction in global inventories by the end of the season. AFRICA: Aggregate 2015 cereal production is forecast to decline mostly on account of poor prospects in East Africa and an expected reduced output i n Southern Africa. Average crops are foreseen in West and Central Africa, while a recovery in North Africa’s production averted a sharper regional decline. In East Africa, pockets of starvation have been reported in some conflict-affected areas of South Sudan calling for urgent and concerted efforts to avert a disaster. In addition, food security conditions deteriorated in Southern Africa, while persistent and disruptive conflicts in parts of Central, East and West Africa continue to devastate t he agricultural sector and acutely impact on food security conditions. ASIA: Despite a forecast increase in the 2015 aggregate regional cereal harvest, mainly as result of a record output forecast in China, dry weather diminished production in India and several countries of the Far East subregion. In the Near East, a production recovery is foreseen from last year’s drought-affected output, but conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continue to aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: El Niño-associated dry weather conditions have sharply reduced crop production forecasts in Central America and the Caribbean. On the other hand, record maize harvests are estimated in South America and Mexico, while a bumper wheat output is also forecast in South America. Strong El Niño predicted to persist into early 2016. El Niño-related dry weather patterns have already adversely impacted on production in parts of Asia and Central America and the Caribbe an. The expected prevalence and continuation of El Niño-associated weather patterns into 2016 have raised alarms in many parts of the world where the cropping season has started or is about to start, including parts of Asia and Southern Africa. FAO estimates that, globally, 35 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4 2015FAO’s latest forecasts for global supply and demand of cereals continue to point to a generally comfortable 2015/16 marketing season, with world inventories by the close of seasons in 2016 expected to fall only slightly below their record opening levels. AFRICA: Cereal production in 2015 is forecast to fall, mainly reflecting the impact of adverse weather on Southern Africa’s output and the ongoing harvest in East Africa. Harvests in West and Central Africa are forecast to remain close to the levels of 2014, while a production recovery in North Africa is anticipated to prevent a steeper regional decline. Conflicts in several countries continued to severely affect food security and the agriculture sector, while drought conditions in East Africa have severely impacted pastoralist livelihoods. ASIA: A record 2015 cereal crop in China boosted aggregate regional production to levels above the previous year, while a recovery in Turkey’s output also contributed. However, dry weather in so me areas of the Far East lowered production in several countries, with a significant decline estimated in India. The persistent conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continued to severely impact on agricultural production and aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Despite improved prospects for second season crops, El Niño-associated dry weather reduced overall 2015 crop production in Central America and the Caribbean, excluding Mexico, where a bumpe r crop was gathered. Large 2015 maize harvests are also estimated in South America, where plantings for the 2016 crops are expected to decline, mainly reflecting ample regional supplies and lower commodity prices. El Niño continues to impact on global agriculture: Following El Niño-related dry weather that adversely affected 2015 crop production in parts of Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, developing dryness in Southern Africa has dampened early 2016 production prospects. FAO estimates that, globally, 33 countries, including 26 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 1- March 2016 2016FAO’s first forecast for global wheat production in 2016 points to a small decrease, with lower outputs expected in Europe and the United States of America. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that, globally, 34 countries, including 27 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Civil conflicts continued to severely affect the food security of a number of countries, while adverse weather, in some cases linked to El Niño, curbed production in others, constraining food access and pushing consumer prices up. AFRICA: Adverse weather reduced 2015 cereal output, resulting in a significant increase in the number of food insecure people in several countries, with conflicts further affecting food security and the agriculture sector in parts. Planting of the 2016 crops has begun in Central, East and West Africa, while in Southern Africa, with the harvest expected to commence from April, El Niño-associated drought conditions have significantly dampened productio n prospects, with severe negative implications for food security in the subregion. In North Africa, 2016 production prospects are mixed, with ongoing drought in Morocco and Algeria lowering production expectations. ASIA: The production outlook for the 2016 winter crops is generally favourable, with early forecasts indicating large wheat crops in most countries. In the Near East, however, persistent conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen have continued to erode the capacity of th e agriculture sector, affecting 2016 production prospects and further worsening the humanitarian crisis. The 2015 regional cereal output is estimated above the previous year’s level, mainly on account of increased harvests in China and Turkey that more than offset lower outputs in several countries of the Far East, in particular India. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: In Early 2016 cereal production prospects are mostly favourable, with harvests expected to remain at high levels, mainly as a re sult of large outputs anticipated in Mexico and South America. In Central America and the Caribbean, while Mexico is forecast to register an increase in production, elsewhere the continuation of El Niño-linked dry conditions may keep production depressed in 2016. In South America, cereal production in 2016 is forecast to decline slightly from the previous year’s record level, mostly reflecting a contraction in plantings, but is expected to remain well above average.
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