Forest sector development pathways

Abstract

History suggests that not all countries follow the same forest sector development path, and not all development paths are equally desirable. Understanding heterogeneity in forest sector development is consequently vital to achieving green growth in forested landscapes, but empirical work on this subject is very scarce. In this paper, we combine a variety of global datasets to characterize both economic and ecological dimensions of development, and apply an unsupervised clustering algorithm to quantify similarities between nations. We interpret our result as a development typology, identifying four broad development paths. The heterogeneity we reveal argues strongly against the tacit assumption that forest sector development is a deterministic process culminating in a specific outcome (for example, moving ‘up the value chain’ via export-led industrialization). This heterogeneity has not previously been quantified, and our result provides an important first step towards an understanding of the nature and the causes of forest sector development outcomes. Beyond its contribution to the study of development, our result is of practical use for the comparative analysis of development plans and efforts to develop baseline scenarios for climate finance. Looking ahead, theoretical explanations for the current distribution of development outcomes must be sought to reframe thinking about forest sector development and guide policy initiatives.

Keywords: development pathways, green growth

ID: 3623153