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2008年粮食危机后的粮食与农业政策趋势

对农业发展问题的重新关注









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    Booklet
    Developing an indicator of price anomalies as an early warning tool: A compound growth approach 2017
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    The food price surge in global markets in 2007-2008 and then again in 2011, has spurred a lot of interest in creating an early warning indicator to detect abnormal growth in prices in consumer markets in the developing world, where advance warning of an impending food crisis can be critical. In these countries, on an early warning basis, sometimes market prices are the only source of information available to assess the severity of a local shock to either access or availability of food. Because p rices summarize information held by a large number of economic agents, including their expectations regarding likely short-term developments in supply and demand, they are ideal to use as the basis of an early warning indicator. The objective of this paper is to present the methodology for an indicator of price anomalies recently developed by the Global Information Early Warning System of FAO that can be used to identify abnormal price changes. The FAO/GIEWS indicator of price anomalies (IPA) re lies on a weighted compound growth rate that accounts for both within year and across year price growth. The main advantage of the IPA is its’ simplicity. It can be used in different markets without concern as to whether or not the market year has been well defined. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over a particular month over many years, which allows one to answer the question of whether or not a small change in price is normal for any particular period.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire 2012
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    La croissance démographique, le développement de l'urbanisation et l'augmentation des revenus continueront à  exercer une pression sur la demande d'aliments. Les prix mondiaux de la plupart des denrées agricoles devraient se maintenir au niveau de 2010 voire augmenter, et ce, du moins tout au long de la prochaine décennie (OCDE-FAO 2010). Les petits producteurs agricoles d'un grand nombre de pays en développement n'ont pas pu tirer parti de la hausse des prix des produits alime ntaires lors de la crise des prix de 2007-2008. Pourtant, la tendance à  la hausse des prix alimentaires aurait pu être l'occasion pour eux d'accroitre leurs revenus tout en contribuant à  améliorer la sécurité alimentaire. Cette opportunité de sortir de la pauvreté ne s'est pas concrétisée. Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Good practices in building innovative rural institutions to increase food security 2012
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    Continued population growth, urbanization and rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2010). Small-scale producers in many developing countries were not able to reap the benefits of high food prices during the 2007-2008 food price crises. Yet, this upward food price trend could have been an opportunity for them to increase t heir incomes and food security. The opportunity that high food prices could have provided as a pathway out of poverty for small producers was not realized.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Booklet
    Developing an indicator of price anomalies as an early warning tool: A compound growth approach 2017
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The food price surge in global markets in 2007-2008 and then again in 2011, has spurred a lot of interest in creating an early warning indicator to detect abnormal growth in prices in consumer markets in the developing world, where advance warning of an impending food crisis can be critical. In these countries, on an early warning basis, sometimes market prices are the only source of information available to assess the severity of a local shock to either access or availability of food. Because p rices summarize information held by a large number of economic agents, including their expectations regarding likely short-term developments in supply and demand, they are ideal to use as the basis of an early warning indicator. The objective of this paper is to present the methodology for an indicator of price anomalies recently developed by the Global Information Early Warning System of FAO that can be used to identify abnormal price changes. The FAO/GIEWS indicator of price anomalies (IPA) re lies on a weighted compound growth rate that accounts for both within year and across year price growth. The main advantage of the IPA is its’ simplicity. It can be used in different markets without concern as to whether or not the market year has been well defined. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over a particular month over many years, which allows one to answer the question of whether or not a small change in price is normal for any particular period.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire 2012
    Also available in:

    La croissance démographique, le développement de l'urbanisation et l'augmentation des revenus continueront à  exercer une pression sur la demande d'aliments. Les prix mondiaux de la plupart des denrées agricoles devraient se maintenir au niveau de 2010 voire augmenter, et ce, du moins tout au long de la prochaine décennie (OCDE-FAO 2010). Les petits producteurs agricoles d'un grand nombre de pays en développement n'ont pas pu tirer parti de la hausse des prix des produits alime ntaires lors de la crise des prix de 2007-2008. Pourtant, la tendance à  la hausse des prix alimentaires aurait pu être l'occasion pour eux d'accroitre leurs revenus tout en contribuant à  améliorer la sécurité alimentaire. Cette opportunité de sortir de la pauvreté ne s'est pas concrétisée. Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Good practices in building innovative rural institutions to increase food security 2012
    Also available in:

    Continued population growth, urbanization and rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2010). Small-scale producers in many developing countries were not able to reap the benefits of high food prices during the 2007-2008 food price crises. Yet, this upward food price trend could have been an opportunity for them to increase t heir incomes and food security. The opportunity that high food prices could have provided as a pathway out of poverty for small producers was not realized.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Booklet
    Developing an indicator of price anomalies as an early warning tool: A compound growth approach 2017
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The food price surge in global markets in 2007-2008 and then again in 2011, has spurred a lot of interest in creating an early warning indicator to detect abnormal growth in prices in consumer markets in the developing world, where advance warning of an impending food crisis can be critical. In these countries, on an early warning basis, sometimes market prices are the only source of information available to assess the severity of a local shock to either access or availability of food. Because p rices summarize information held by a large number of economic agents, including their expectations regarding likely short-term developments in supply and demand, they are ideal to use as the basis of an early warning indicator. The objective of this paper is to present the methodology for an indicator of price anomalies recently developed by the Global Information Early Warning System of FAO that can be used to identify abnormal price changes. The FAO/GIEWS indicator of price anomalies (IPA) re lies on a weighted compound growth rate that accounts for both within year and across year price growth. The main advantage of the IPA is its’ simplicity. It can be used in different markets without concern as to whether or not the market year has been well defined. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over a particular month over many years, which allows one to answer the question of whether or not a small change in price is normal for any particular period.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire 2012
    Also available in:

    La croissance démographique, le développement de l'urbanisation et l'augmentation des revenus continueront à  exercer une pression sur la demande d'aliments. Les prix mondiaux de la plupart des denrées agricoles devraient se maintenir au niveau de 2010 voire augmenter, et ce, du moins tout au long de la prochaine décennie (OCDE-FAO 2010). Les petits producteurs agricoles d'un grand nombre de pays en développement n'ont pas pu tirer parti de la hausse des prix des produits alime ntaires lors de la crise des prix de 2007-2008. Pourtant, la tendance à  la hausse des prix alimentaires aurait pu être l'occasion pour eux d'accroitre leurs revenus tout en contribuant à  améliorer la sécurité alimentaire. Cette opportunité de sortir de la pauvreté ne s'est pas concrétisée. Institutions rurales innovantes: pour une meilleure sécurité alimentaire
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Good practices in building innovative rural institutions to increase food security 2012
    Also available in:

    Continued population growth, urbanization and rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2010). Small-scale producers in many developing countries were not able to reap the benefits of high food prices during the 2007-2008 food price crises. Yet, this upward food price trend could have been an opportunity for them to increase t heir incomes and food security. The opportunity that high food prices could have provided as a pathway out of poverty for small producers was not realized.

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