Mitigating persistent welfare losses due to weather shocks. The case of livestock herders in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Kyrgyzstan experienced an extremely cold winter in 2012, with heavy snowfall followed by a significant spring run-off. This harsh winter led to considerable livestock mortality and price rises for animal products, with a substantial impact on the welfare of livestock herding households. On average, households affected by the harsh winter experienced a 5 percent reduction in food consumption expenditure in the first year following the shock, and 8 percent reduction four years later with respect to households not exposed to this shock (Figure 1). The significant and persistent impact of the harsh winter is particularly evident for the wealthiest households, who typically own more animals and are, therefore, more exposed to the risk of climate induced animal mortality. For this population, food consumption expenditures declined by 24–27 percent in the short and medium terms as a result of the harsh winter with respect to wealthy households not exposed to the shock.