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Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1 HPAI) spread in The Middle East: risk assessment











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    H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of Clade 2.3.4.4 detected through surveillance of wild migratory birds in Tyva Republic, Russian Federation – potential for international spread 2016
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    H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of Clade 2.3.4.4 has been detected in migratory birds at Lake Ubsu-Nur in Tyva Republic of the Russian Federation, located on the Central Asian Flyway. Detection of HPAI virus in this location in the past has repeatedly been followed several months later by detection of similar virus in other locations especially to the West and South of Tyva Republic. All countries along this flyway and those to the West in the former Soviet Republics, The Mid dle East, Eastern Europe and even Africa (especially West Africa) should be on the alert for incursions of this virus.
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    Potential risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) spreading through wild water bird migration
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    2005
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    There is a potential that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might be carried along migration routes of wild water birds to densely populated areas in the south Asian subcontinent and along migratory flyways to Europe. Recent outbreaks of HPAI in Russia and Kazakhstan (August, 2005) attest to this fact. Looking at the major bird migration routes (Fig. 1), the HPAI H5N1 virus could possibly spread from Siberia to the Caspian and Black Sea areas in the foreseeable future. Some w ild water birds are nesting in the newly AI affected areas in Novosibirsk and Altai in Russia and will migrate to the above-mentioned areas for winter or stop-over on their way to Africa and Europe. Bird migration routes run across Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine and some Mediterranean countries, where bird flu outbreaks are a possibility. Also India and Bangladesh, which currently seem to be uninfected, are at risk because both areas harbour large numbers of domestic duck and the count ries are situated along one of the major migratory routes. They have the potential to become new large endemic foci of HPAI infection. Additionally, spring migration of 2006 may result in the spread of HPAI H5N1 virus across European Russia, because birds migrating from Europe and European Russia and Siberia have common wintering areas in Southwest Asia.
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    Addressing H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza 2016
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    Following H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Republic of Cameroon in May and September 2016, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) prepared a qualitative assessment in order to evaluate the risks of the introduction of the virus into neighbouring countries with Cameroon that have so far not reported occurrence of the disease through poultry movements and trade relations (i.e. the Central African Republic, the Republic of Chad, the Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Equatorial Guinea and the Gabonese Republic). The Federal Republic of Nigeria has been affected by H5N1 HPAI outbreaks in poultry since December 2014 and circulation of the virus is considered to be endemic. Though bordering Cameroon, Nigeria was, therefore, not included in the assessment given that the virus is already present there. The qualitative assessment is based on information available as of 15 September 2016 and will be revised as circumstances change. The reader should also note that the uncertainty in the assessment of the different levels of likelihood remains high, since there is need for a better understanding of the poultry sector at local, national and regional levels as well as poultry movement patterns and related issues to provide a more precise assessment.

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