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Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1 HPAI) spread in The Middle East: risk assessment











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    Book (series)
    H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of Clade 2.3.4.4 detected through surveillance of wild migratory birds in Tyva Republic, Russian Federation – potential for international spread 2016
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    H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of Clade 2.3.4.4 has been detected in migratory birds at Lake Ubsu-Nur in Tyva Republic of the Russian Federation, located on the Central Asian Flyway. Detection of HPAI virus in this location in the past has repeatedly been followed several months later by detection of similar virus in other locations especially to the West and South of Tyva Republic. All countries along this flyway and those to the West in the former Soviet Republics, The Mid dle East, Eastern Europe and even Africa (especially West Africa) should be on the alert for incursions of this virus.
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    Book (series)
    Potential risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) spreading through wild water bird migration
    Updated version
    2005
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    There is a potential that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might be carried along migration routes of wild water birds to densely populated areas in the south Asian subcontinent and along migratory flyways to Europe. Recent outbreaks of HPAI in Russia and Kazakhstan (August, 2005) attest to this fact. Looking at the major bird migration routes (Fig. 1), the HPAI H5N1 virus could possibly spread from Siberia to the Caspian and Black Sea areas in the foreseeable future. Some w ild water birds are nesting in the newly AI affected areas in Novosibirsk and Altai in Russia and will migrate to the above-mentioned areas for winter or stop-over on their way to Africa and Europe. Bird migration routes run across Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine and some Mediterranean countries, where bird flu outbreaks are a possibility. Also India and Bangladesh, which currently seem to be uninfected, are at risk because both areas harbour large numbers of domestic duck and the count ries are situated along one of the major migratory routes. They have the potential to become new large endemic foci of HPAI infection. Additionally, spring migration of 2006 may result in the spread of HPAI H5N1 virus across European Russia, because birds migrating from Europe and European Russia and Siberia have common wintering areas in Southwest Asia.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    2016–2018 Spread of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in sub-Saharan Africa
    Epidemiological and ecological observations
    2018
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    South Africa is experiencing an epidemic of H5N8 HPAI virus since 2017 in both domestic and wild birds. The document will assess the potential for the virus to persist in this ecosystem and potentially spread northwards with wild bird movement during the South African winter (i.e. June – September 2018).

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