Thumbnail Image

Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries

Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 10.

Year of publication 2004

Pages 26

Author Luca Salvatici, Piero Conforti ;Trade and Markets Division

Product type Book (stand-alone)

Series title FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper

Edition 1

Synopsis (short abstract) The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and d eveloping countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.

Language English

Also available in:
No results found.

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    The impact of import surges: country case study results for Senegal and Tanzania
    FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 11.
    2005
    Also available in:
    No results found.
    Measuring the impacts of import surges is a difficult task, but simple case studies illustrate some of the fundamental issues. From the two case studies examined in this paper, it was found that the impacts vary markedly in different settings and for different commodities. Thus, for example, while the negative impact on Senegal’s broiler industry came out clearly, import surges were not an issue in the case of dairy products. This was because dairy imports, although high, had increased steadily over a longer period of time and as a result the local industry had adjusted. In the case of Tanzania, some negative effects were found for the dairy sub-sector but only limited effects on poultry. In both countries, rapid growth in poultry imports also revealed the weaknesses of the domestic processing industry in competing with imported products, particularly in situations where there has been rapid growth in demand for further processed quality products by supermarkets and hotels which the lo cal industry has failed to supply.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Book (stand-alone)
    Safety nets to protect consumers from possible adverse effects 1997
    Also available in:
    No results found.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    No. 14 Towards appropriate agricultural trade policy for low income developing countries
    No. 14 CONSIDERATIONS IN THE REFORM OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY in low income developing countries
    2006
    Also available in:
    Many developing countries are currently under pressure to reduce their trade barriers to the entry of agricultural products. This pressure comes both as a result of ongoing trade negotiations (multilateral, plurilateral or bilateral) and due to policy advice from donors and international organizations based on the assumption that a liberal agricultural trade policy is necessary to allow growth through trade expansion. Although developing countries are very heterogeneous both in terms of their economic standing and in terms of what is asked of them in trade negotiations, these sources of pressure have tended to become conflated into a common consensus that further agricultural trade liberalization is appropriate for all countries, regardless of their level of development or of their trading partners trade policy stance.
Show more

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

No results found.