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Book (stand-alone)Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 1 April 2006 2006World cereal production in 2006 is forecast to decline marginally from last year's good level. Wheat output is expected to decrease reflecting smaller crops in the United States and the CIS in Europe, due to adverse weather. Production of coarse grains is tentatively forecast to decline mostly as a result of reduced plantings anticipated in the United States. Rice output may increase as very early prospects are favourable. In Eastern Africa, recent rains eased somewhat drought conditions i n the pastoral areas of the Horn, where 7.9 million people require emergency food aid. In Southern Africa, the 2006 maize crop, being gathered, has recovered from last year's drought-affected harvest in most countries of the subregion. However in South Africa and Angola, production will decline. In North Africa, bumper wheat and barley crops are in prospect. In Asia, the outlook for the 2006 wheat crop, being harvested, has deteriorated in India, but it is positive in other main producers of the region. Emergency assistance in needed in Mongolia and Timore-Leste following a sharply reduced 2005 cereal production. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2006 wheat output is anticipated substantially up in Mexico. In South America, maize output is forecast as sharply down in Argentina but production will recover in Brazil. However, rice crop in Brazil is put well below the record level of 2005. In Paraguay, the soybean crop will be again severely reduced by dry weather. A larger 2006 wheat crop is forecast in the EU but production is expected to decline in the United States. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine this year's wheat production is put sharply down due to abnormally cold winter.
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Book (stand-alone)Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No.3 July 2008 2008World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 2.8 percent to a record 2 180 million tonnes. Most of the increase is in wheat following significant expansion in plantings in all regions. Coarse grains output is expected around the bumper level of last year but lower than earlier anticipated due to severe floods in the United States, the world¡¯s largest producer and exporter. Rice is tentatively forecast to increase slightly from last year¡¯s good level. Despite the anticipated inc rease in world output, cereal markets will remain tight in 2008/09. Total cereal supply (carry-in stocks plus production) will barely exceed the anticipated utilization and the world cereal reserves will recover only marginally from the current estimated 30-year low.
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Book (stand-alone)Food Outlook, June 2006 2006The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disa sters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases. Based on current indications, several agricultural commodities are likely to experience still more unstable months ahead and, in most instances, the fundamentals point to even further gains in prices. This eventuality seems strongest for cereals, as world cereal demand is forecast to surpass its supply in the new season and push down stocks to an uncomfortably low level. For sugar, while a further surge in prices from the current high levels could be considered as less probable, the main risk remains the continuing price volatility. For the oilseed complex, as well as meat and dairy, fundamentals at this point in time do not support a tightening in the markets and the near-term price prospects are more on the downside instead. Against this background of mixed outlook but generally firm prices, FAO is forecasting an increase of over 2 percent in the world food import bill in 2006 compared to 2005. The increase is expected to be strongest for cereals and sugar but smallest for meat. Given their higher share as importers of food and feed, the developing countries’ bill is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent while that of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries is forecast to jump by nearly 7 percent.
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