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Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania











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    How do extreme weather events affect livestock herders’ welfare? Evidence from Kyrgyzstan 2018
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    This paper examines the impact of the harsh 2012 winter on livestock herding households in Kyrgyzstan and identifies policy options to increase household resilience to such shocks. While existing studies mostly focus on rainfall shocks in tropical or dry climate areas, this analysis examines the exceptionally harsh winter that hit Kyrgyzstan in 2012, which resulted in the death of 25 000 animals. Using a unique household panel survey, merged with observed temperature data, the analysis finds that, on average, the negative effects of the winter shock on household welfare are significant and persistent over time, leading to a 5 percent and a 8 percent decrease in households’ food consumption expenditure in the short- (2011–2013) and medium-run (2011–2016), respectively. When disaggregating by income quantiles, the evidence shows that negative impact is concentrated in the upper quantiles of the welfare distribution. Several policy options are identified as effective in mitigating the negative welfare impacts of the weather shock. First, supporting households to restock their herds following weather shocks is found to significantly improve medium-term welfare by 10 percent relative to those that did not restock. Restocking efforts can be addressed in a holistic manner that takes into account immediate household needs, while simultaneously building long-term resilience in the livestock sector. This may include mitigating animal losses through the development of local forage markets that increase the availability of winter forage, combined with efforts to improve the genetic pool of livestock species through breeding programmes that select for resiliency traits. Second, results show that households living in regions with higher access to public veterinary services had significantly better welfare outcomes following the winter shock. Improvements of veterinary services and strengthening community-based organizations focusing on livestock and pasture development may help herding households to cope with weather shocks.
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    Welfare impacts of climate shocks Evidence from Uganda 2016
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    This paper evaluates the effects of weather/climate shocks on various measures of household welfare using a nationally representative panel data from Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) together with a set of novel climate variation indicators. We estimated generalized least square (GLS) random effects and quintile regression models to address the research questions. Our results point towards a consumption and income smoothing behaviour by the households since: we obtain very few significant results with respect to climate/weather shock variables togetherwith highly significant effects of the socio-demographic and wealth control variables. We also investigate if different shocks definitions, i.e the reference period used to define the shock, modifies our results. The latter are robust since the coefficients and the signs do not change with the reference period. We further test the hypotheses that policy-relevant mechanisms can be effective means of mitigating the negative welfare effects. For instance access to credit services and use of sustainable land management practices enables the households to contain the negative effects of climate shock on per capita food consumption from own produced crops but not the case for some of the outcome variables.
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    Mitigating persistent welfare losses due to weather shocks. The case of livestock herders in Kyrgyzstan
    FAO Agricultural Development Economics Policy Brief 10
    2018
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    Kyrgyzstan experienced an extremely cold winter in 2012, with heavy snowfall followed by a significant spring run-off. This harsh winter led to considerable livestock mortality and price rises for animal products, with a substantial impact on the welfare of livestock herding households. On average, households affected by the harsh winter experienced a 5 percent reduction in food consumption expenditure in the first year following the shock, and 8 percent reduction four years later with respect to households not exposed to this shock (Figure 1). The significant and persistent impact of the harsh winter is particularly evident for the wealthiest households, who typically own more animals and are, therefore, more exposed to the risk of climate induced animal mortality. For this population, food consumption expenditures declined by 24–27 percent in the short and medium terms as a result of the harsh winter with respect to wealthy households not exposed to the shock.

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