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Book (series)Productive public investment in agriculture for economic recovery with rural well-being: an analysis of prospective scenarios for Uganda 2022
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No results found.This study highlights how, through a series of scenarios, public investments promoting agricultural productivity in Uganda could drive growth in agrifood production, with favourable impacts on the economy, on well-being and on poverty, especially in rural areas. Using a modelling tool to represent the Ugandan economy, with its multiple sectors and current fiscal constraints, the study ranked the subsectors of Uganda’s agriculture that, through the productivity impact of public investments representing 0.25 percent of GDP (on average, about 373 billion 2017 Uganda shillings) during the years 2023–2025, will generate the greatest socio-economic benefits, maximizing the cost-effectiveness of the public investments. Generally, economic growth and the welfare of households, as measured by their consumption, will be positively impacted, but the impacts will ultimately depend on the sector that receives the investment, which is shown in a ranking. The agricultural sectors targeted for government investment will increase their output (and food prices will thus fall), and this will stimulate growth in non-agricultural sectors, both by increasing final demand for non-agricultural products and by lowering input prices and fostering upstream processing. Lower food prices will have a significant impact since food represents a relatively large proportion of the consumption basket of poorest households. Furthermore, labour income for rural households will increase with productivity growth, and this will reduce rural poverty. The findings of this study provide important information about the priorities of Uganda’s National Development Plan (NDP) III and vision for agriculture, as well as new priorities to be considered for enabling economic recovery with increased well-being post-COVID-19. -
Brochure, flyer, fact-sheetThe contribution of public investment in the agricultural sector to economic growth and rural poverty reduction
A high-level dialogue in Nicaragua based on a prospective analysis
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In 2018, the government of Nicaragua requested technical assistance from FAO to carry out a prospective analysis of the Nicaraguan economy and the evolution of rural poverty, in the context of the restrictive economic conditions experienced in the country that year. Thus, the FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) in Rome, together with the FAO Country Office in Nicaragua (FAONI) and in close coordination and support with the country’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) and the Ministry of Agriculture (MAG), developed the study “Analysis of alternative ways of public investment and its impact on economic growth, agriculture and poverty reduction in Nicaragua.” This analysis generated quantitative evidence on the impact of agriculture on economic growth and poverty reduction. The results are clear: in all simulated scenarios, it was verified that an increase – by a value of 0.5 or 1 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – of public investment in the agricultural sector generates economic growth, which is reflected, among other things, in GDP growth that varies between 0.8 and 3.5 percent annually through 2030 depending on the scenario. Moreover, it is observed that the difference in the total poverty rate in rural areas with respect to the base scenario would range between 0.5 and 2.25 percentage points in the same period, depending on the agricultural investment scenario. With regard to extreme poverty, the difference is projected to be between 0.16 and 0.31 points. The ongoing high-level dialogue and collaboration between FAO and Nicaragua’s economic and fiscal policy-making authorities is an excellent example, which should be replicated elsewhere, of how FAO can influence a country’s public policies. -
Book (stand-alone)Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments 2018
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No results found.This study aims at exploring the implications for future economic growth and poverty of different agricultural price trajectories through scenario analysis. Agricultural prices are not a given but the end result of underlying changes in demand and supply. Acknowledging that the future is uncertain we assess the implications of contrasting developments in population, a key driver of agricultural prices, through its impact on demand. Using MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we develop three scenarios. The reference or baseline scenario is built upon the “Middle of the road” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2), projecting from 2010 to 2030 with no major divergence from historical patterns. We then construct alternative high and low price scenarios by varying assumptions on population growth. The aim is not to predict the future but to systematically think through how different paths of a key driver changes how the world may look. Any model covering the entire world economy uses a large number of assumptions with varying levels of empirical support. We therefore also highlight key assumptions which need more empirical scrutiny to improve our understanding of the likely direction of future development
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