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Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments











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    The impact of changes in the fundamental drivers of trade – Productivity, trade costs, and trade policies
    Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2022
    2022
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    Countries’ varying natural resource endowments are vital in explaining international trade. Traditional trade theory suggests that differences in technology and factor endowments lead countries to specialize and export certain goods or services in which they have a comparative advantage. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations used in this paper aim to explain agricultural trade patterns and show how agricultural trade would change in response to productivity, infrastructure and institutions improvements and trade cost changes from regional and global trade liberalization. A set of nine scenarios is used to explore the effects of productivity, transport costs, non-tariff barriers (NTB), and border measures changes on agricultural and food trade and related welfare implications. Policies driving agricultural productivity growth such as investments in research and development, economic reforms that strengthen incentives for farmers, rural education and extension, and improved infrastructure are shown to reduce the yield gap and improve productivity. Lower trade costs help comparative advantage play out, resulting in gains from trade. Measures taken to increase trade integration in Africa and Asia will be important for economic growth and development in these regions.
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    The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050 2018
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    The report 'The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050' explores three different scenarios for the future of food and agriculture, based on alternative trends for key drivers, such as income growth and distribution, population growth, technical progress in agriculture, and climate change. Building on the report 'The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges', this publication provides scenario-based quantitative projections to 2050 for food and agriculture. Quantitative evidence and qualitative assessments, shed light on possible strategic options for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger, improving nutrition and ensuring that food and agricultural sectors become economically, socially and environmentally sustainable.
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    The future of food and agriculture (FOFA): Quantitative modelling framework 2018
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    To provide projections of relevant food and agriculture variables in foresight exercises, the FAO Global perspectives Studies team uses two main quantitative economic models: the FAO Global Agriculture Perspectives System (GAPS) and the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium (ENVISAGE) model. FAO GAPS is a partial equilibrium model that focuses on the relationships between production and consumption of food and agriculture goods, and food security and nutrition. The ENVISAGE model covers the whole economy and portrays the frame for the food and agriculture sectors. Both models allow scenarios to be internally consistent, as they ensure: i) respect of certain physical and economic balances, such as the matching of demand and supply for goods and services under scenario-specific assumptions on population growth, technological progress, and natural resource constraints under changing climate conditions; ii) compliance with selected theoretical restrictions, such as limits on food expenditure imposed by available income and matching value added generation and outlays.

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