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Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments

Year of publication 2018

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 61

Author Wageningen Economic Research

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Book (stand-alone)

ISBN 978-92-5-130096-1

Edition 1

Synopsis (short abstract) This study aims at exploring the implications for future economic growth and poverty of different agricultural price trajectories through scenario analysis. Agricultural prices are not a given but the end result of underlying changes in demand and supply. Acknowledging that the future is uncertain we assess the implications of contrasting developments in population, a key driver of agricultural prices, through its impact on demand. Using MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we develop three scenarios. The reference or baseline scenario is built upon the “Middle of the road” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2), projecting from 2010 to 2030 with no major divergence from historical patterns. We then construct alternative high and low price scenarios by varying assumptions on population growth. The aim is not to predict the future but to systematically think through how different paths of a key driver changes how the world may look. Any model covering the entire world economy uses a large number of assumptions with varying levels of empirical support. We therefore also highlight key assumptions which need more empirical scrutiny to improve our understanding of the likely direction of future development

Language English

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