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Assistance in chronic conflict areas: evidence from South Sudan













d’Errico, M., Ngesa, O. & Pietrelli, R. 2020. Assistance in chronic conflict areas: evidence from South Sudan. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 20-01. Rome, FAO. 





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    To better understand the resilience and vulnerability of the populations in Chad, the Sudan and South Sudan, the Feinstein International Center, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University has drawn on available secondary data on nutrition, environmental factors (rainfall, temperature and vegetation), conflict and emergency events, together with primary qualitative findings from eastern Chad and western Sudan, prioritizing community perspectives. The report findings underscore the importance of environmental variability and the persistence of climate, conflict and other shocks in relation to livelihood resilience and transformation over time. The findings also challenge long-standing assumptions about the seasonality of malnutrition and present new findings on livelihoods in countries struggling with or seeking to recover from climate, conflict and other disasters. Many humanitarian programmes have been in continuous operation in eastern Chad, Darfur and Bahr el Ghazal for over two decades. From a community perspective, the past 50 years have been a series of multiple and overlapping hazardous events, many persisting for years, exacerbating their impact and eroding resilience. At the same time, the region is characterized by environmental variability, including rainfall variability (spatially as well as seasonally, and over years) and ecological diversity. Farming and pastoralist livelihood systems characteristic of the region have co-evolved in response to this environmental variability and have adapted to manage delayed rains and drier spells. However, the long history and protracted nature of many shocks, combined with wider trends, have contributed to pivotal changes and to transformations of these livelihoods, although the dryland farming and pastoralist systems remain central to local livelihoods and the economy. The role of seasonality is further reflected in the observed patterns of different types of conflict. Our data reveal that the region has continued to suffer from high rates of acute malnutrition over the past 25 years, with seasonal peaks regularly exceeding the emergency threshold of 15 percent. Furthermore, contrary to the assumption that in a unimodal rainfall system the peak of acute malnutrition occurs at the end of the lean season, when food insecurity is at its peak, our data show that there are two peaks of acute malnutrition. The first and larger peak occurs at the end of the dry season. It is followed by a slight improvement in acute malnutrition and then a secondary but smaller peak after the lean season. Drawing on the qualitative community perspectives, our analysis points to the seasonality of livelihood systems linked with environmental variability as the crucial determinants of the twin peaks, through its effects on food security, care and health. The analysis also provides insights into the seasonality of different types of conflict, part of which is also related to seasonality of livelihood activities. The findings from this study have direct implications for household recovery, resilience and nutrition, and raise specific considerations for data collection, future research, programming and policy.
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    Food insecurity in South Sudan is driven by cascading shocks including conflict and insecurity, macro-economic crisis caused by the depreciation of the local currency, high inflation, conflict in the Sudan, climatic shocks (floods and dry spells), climate- and conflict-induced population displacement, persistent low agricultural production levels, and the cumulative effects of prolonged years of asset depletion that continue to erode the coping capacities of households and the loss of livelihoods. This DIEM-Impact assessment adopted qualitative research approaches and enabled an understanding of experiences, attitudes, behaviours and interactions in relation to conflict and food insecurity, and the impacts of floods in locations where they have been prevalent.The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) established Data in Emergencies Impact (DIEM-Impact) to provide a granular and rapid understanding of the impact of large-scale hazards on agriculture and agricultural livelihoods using a variety of assessment methodologies, including primary and secondary information, remote sensing technologies, and FAO’s damage and loss methodology. DIEM-Impact presents a regularly updated and accessible state of food insecurity in fragile environments and helps underpin FAO's programming based on evidence.
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    Humanitarian needs in South Sudan are expected to reach a record high this year. Amid a complex emergency that has displaced millions and destroyed livelihoods, more than half the population will be acutely food insecure during the lean season from April to June. Almost 80 000 people are likely to face catastrophic levels of food insecurity, meaning that food is almost completely inaccessible and they cannot meet basic needs. In a country where 9 in 10 people depend on agriculture, supporting livelihoods is vital and cost-effective. For example, with a USD 55 crop production kit, a family can grow and harvest a nutritious variety of food to last them over five months. This document provides an overview of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO) component of the 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for South Sudan. FAO requires USD 60 million to assist 3.9 million people.

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