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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #4, 11 May 2022

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends













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    International prices of wheat and maize fell in November, both influenced by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Greater export competition and low demand for supplies from the United States of America contributed to the fall in wheat prices, while in the same country, improved logistics and higher seasonal availability also helped ease maize prices. By contrast, international rice prices moved up by another 2.3 percent in November, influenced by currency appreciations against the United States dollar in some Asian suppliers and good buying interest. According to FAO’s most recent analysis, domestic staple food prices sustained their year-on-year higher levels in November. In some regions, seasonal harvests and domestic policy interventions in favour of critical food and input markets abated the pressure on prices. Price transmission from global food and energy markets, amid widespread currency depreciation, continues to reinforce the upward trend of domestic prices and is expected to push the 2022 food import bills to record levels in many countries. Adverse weather events and market disruptions from conflict and civil unrest are other contributory factors to tight supply conditions and elevated domestic staple food prices.
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    International wheat prices increased in May in response to India’s announcement of a wheat export ban, amid global supply concerns fuelled by reduced 2022 production prospects as well as disruptions to shipments due to the war in Ukraine. By contrast, international prices of coarse grains eased, as maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil, along with slightly improved crop conditions in the United States of America, alleviated the pressure on markets. Rice prices increased for the fifth successive month in May, amid generally upbeat demand. Based on latest available data, FAO analysis indicates that the number of countries across the globe facing exceptionally high levels of food prices increased sharply in May. Many cases, while originating from reduced domestic supplies, national macroeconomic difficulties and/or localized insecurity, are being exacerbated by the impact of the war in Ukraine on international food, fuel and fertilizer markets.
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    Wheat export prices eased in January, reflecting increased seasonal availability from large Southern Hemisphere harvests. By contrast, international maize prices were firmer, mostly underpinned by concerns over dry conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. International rice prices also edged up, as main crop harvests drew to a close and purchases by Asian buyers lent them support. In most of West Africa, prices of coarse grains increased or remained stable, in spite of the recently concluded harvests, and were significantly higher year on year, mostly supported by persisting conflicts and higher transportation costs. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in January but generally remained significantly above their year-earlier levels across the subregion. In particular, exceptionally high price levels prevailed in South Sudan and the Sudan. In Far East Asia, in Sri Lanka, prices of staple foods increased to record or near record levels in January reflecting further depreciation of the national currency, as well as concerns over the outlook for the approaching main “Maha” paddy crop, affected by shortages of inputs during the growing season.

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