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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #4, 11 May 2022

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends











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    International prices of wheat and maize fell in November, both influenced by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Greater export competition and low demand for supplies from the United States of America contributed to the fall in wheat prices, while in the same country, improved logistics and higher seasonal availability also helped ease maize prices. By contrast, international rice prices moved up by another 2.3 percent in November, influenced by currency appreciations against the United States dollar in some Asian suppliers and good buying interest. According to FAO’s most recent analysis, domestic staple food prices sustained their year-on-year higher levels in November. In some regions, seasonal harvests and domestic policy interventions in favour of critical food and input markets abated the pressure on prices. Price transmission from global food and energy markets, amid widespread currency depreciation, continues to reinforce the upward trend of domestic prices and is expected to push the 2022 food import bills to record levels in many countries. Adverse weather events and market disruptions from conflict and civil unrest are other contributory factors to tight supply conditions and elevated domestic staple food prices.
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    Prices of all major cereals increased in February. Wheat and coarse grain prices were pressured upward by supply uncertainties amidst potential disruptions to exports from the Black Sea Region. Crop condition concerns in South America continued to lend support to maize prices. Although international rice prices also edged up during February, they remained below their year-earlier levels. In most of West Africa, prices of coarse grains continued to increase and were at near-record levels. In the Sahel, prices were underpinned by reduced outputs and conflicts, while in the coastal countries, they were supported by strong export demand and currency depreciation. Reduced cross-border trade flows and higher international prices, particularly of maize, added upward pressure on domestic prices. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in February and were generally well above their year-earlier levels across the subregion. Exceptionally high levels prevailed in South Sudan and the Sudan. In Far East Asia, in Sri Lanka, prices of rice and wheat flour continued to increase, reaching record levels in February due to further depreciation of the national currency. Expectations of a below-average main “Maha” crop added to the upward price pressure in the case of rice, while upward trends in international markets provided additional support to wheat prices.
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    International wheat prices increased in May in response to India’s announcement of a wheat export ban, amid global supply concerns fuelled by reduced 2022 production prospects as well as disruptions to shipments due to the war in Ukraine. By contrast, international prices of coarse grains eased, as maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil, along with slightly improved crop conditions in the United States of America, alleviated the pressure on markets. Rice prices increased for the fifth successive month in May, amid generally upbeat demand. Based on latest available data, FAO analysis indicates that the number of countries across the globe facing exceptionally high levels of food prices increased sharply in May. Many cases, while originating from reduced domestic supplies, national macroeconomic difficulties and/or localized insecurity, are being exacerbated by the impact of the war in Ukraine on international food, fuel and fertilizer markets.

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