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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #10, 14 December 2022

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends












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    After edging down for the past three months, international prices of wheat firmed marginally in February, mostly reflecting strong demand and concerns over dry weather conditions in some major exporters. World maize prices were nearly unchanged in February, with mixed price trends among the major exporters. International rice prices eased in February, amid exchange rate movements and a slowdown in trading activities in most major Asian exporters. Latest analysis by FAO shows that domestic staple food prices generally remained at elevated levels in February 2023. Seasonal factors and price transmission from the recent weakening of international grain prices supported month‑on‑month declines in some staple food prices in parts of East Asia, South America, Southern Africa and West Africa. Nonetheless, in many countries, conflict, adverse weather events and macroeconomic challenges, particularly currency weakness, continue to drive up local prices.
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    International prices of wheat fell again in January, as the short-term outlook for global supplies continued to improve, in particular following latest estimates of larger 2022 outputs in Australia and the Russian Federation than earlier expected. By contrast, international coarse grain prices firmed marginally, mostly reflecting the continued strong demand for maize supplies from Brazil. For rice, tighter availabilities, strong local demand in some Asian exporting countries and exchange rate movements increased international prices at an accelerated pace in January. FAO’s analysis of domestic staple food prices indicates that significantly high price levels persisted in December 2022 and January 2023, despite some evidence of easing from 2022 peaks for selected countries, including parts of Southern Africa and West Africa. Food access constraints will likely continue in the near term, amid fragile social and economic conditions in several areas, especially in the Horn of Africa. Developments in the global market, along with other concurrent shocks, including adverse weather events, conflicts and macroeconomic challenges such as currency weaknesses, will continue to influence domestic staple food price trends.
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    International prices of all major cereals declined in June. Seasonal supplies put downward pressure on both wheat and maize prices, with wheat harvests starting in the Northern Hemisphere and maize harvests continuing in the Southern Hemisphere. Rice prices also declined amid subdued demand for non-Indica rice and efforts to attract export sales in Pakistan. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic prices of basic foods in June 2023 remained above their year‑earlier levels. High prices of coarse grains persisted in East and West Africa, while seasonal pressure supported declines in maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and East Asia, ample carry-over stocks and new supplies from ongoing harvests are contributing to softer wheat and wheat flour prices. Meanwhile, in East Asia, domestic rice prices were generally stable across the subregion but increased in major exporting countries. Conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs as well as currency weaknesses continue to be the major drivers.

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