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Understanding the drought impact of El Niño on the global agricultural areas

An assessment using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI)












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    Book (series)
    Comprendiendo el impacto de El Niño relacionado con la sequía en las zonas agrícolas mundiales
    Evaluación utilizando el Índice de Estrés Agrícola de la FAO (ASI)
    2015
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    FAO monitors the evolution of hazards and provides early indications and warnings on possible impacts on agriculture and food security. One such phenomenon is the periodic occurrence of El Niño. During El Niño episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted triggering extreme climate events around the globe: droughts, floods and affecting the intensity and frequency of hurricanes. Agriculture is one of the main sectors of the economy that could be severely affected by El Niño phenomena. FAO monitors the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, among other weather related hazards, with a special focus on the potential impacts on the agricultural sector. FAO-GIEWS communicates developments during the gestation period and issues alerts and warningsif and when necessary. The objective of this study is to enhance our understanding of the El Niño phenomenon using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index system (ASIS). FAOASI, developed with t he support of EU/FAO Improved Global Governance for Hunger Reduction Programme, is based on remote sensing data that highlights anomalous vegetation growth and potential drought in arable land during a given cropping season.
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    Meeting
    Impact of dipole mode and El-Nino events on catches of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Eastern Indian Ocean off west Java 2013
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    The impact of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on catches of yellowfin tu (Thunnus albacares) (YFT) in the Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java was alyzed through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea surface temperature/ SST and chlorophyll-a concentration/ SSC) and yellowfin tu catch data. Alyses were conducted for the period of 2003–2012, which included the strong positive dipole mode event in association with weak ENSO in 2006. Yellowf in tu catch data were based from the report of Palabuhanratu fishing port and remotely sensed environmental data were based from MODIS-Aqua_NOAA. IOD has a significant effect on the catch composition and proportion of YFT. In the strong positive dipole mode event in 2006 and weak ENSO events in 2011 and 2012 the catch of YFT was higher than normal period. An increasing Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of YFT started from May-June and reached the peak on September-October was noted, this might be due to upwelling evident before the increasing trend observed. High increase of YFT-CPUE occurred during strong positive dipole mode event (2006) and a weak ENSO events (2011 and 2012) might be related to the increase of abundance and distribution of chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton in those period. In contrast, YFT- CPUE was very low at the La-Ni event in 2005 while this species was still domint in the catch composition compared to other tu species.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin
    Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions. no 32, July-September 2019
    2019
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    During the period July to September 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (e.g. intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (e.g. droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -ENSO, changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (e.g. cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters. In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July to September 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 41 countries (31 in Africa, nine in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts. Main Food Chain Threats: Thirty three plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period July to September 2019. A total of 284 forecasts were conducted in 122 countries.

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