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GIEWS Food Outlook - November 2010









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    Book (stand-alone)
    Food Outlook, June 2006 2006
    The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disa sters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases. Based on current indications, several agricultural commodities are likely to experience still more unstable months ahead and, in most instances, the fundamentals point to even further gains in prices. This eventuality seems strongest for cereals, as world cereal demand is forecast to surpass its supply in the new season and push down stocks to an uncomfortably low level. For sugar, while a further surge in prices from the current high levels could be considered as less probable, the main risk remains the continuing price volatility. For the oilseed complex, as well as meat and dairy, fundamentals at this point in time do not support a tightening in the markets and the near-term price prospects are more on the downside instead. Against this background of mixed outlook but generally firm prices, FAO is forecasting an increase of over 2 percent in the world food import bill in 2006 compared to 2005. The increase is expected to be strongest for cereals and sugar but smallest for meat. Given their higher share as importers of food and feed, the developing countries’ bill is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent while that of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries is forecast to jump by nearly 7 percent.
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    Document
    Macroeconomic Environment, Commodity Markets: a longer term outlook
    Expert Meeting on How to feed the World in 2050
    2009
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    The recent commodity boom was the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Although most prices have declined sharply since their mid-2008 peak, they are still considerably higher than 2003, the beginning of the boom. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous other factors including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion in many countries, and, perhaps, investment fund activity. On the other hand, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, adverse weather conditions, global stock declines to historical lows and government policies, including export bans and prohibitive taxes, accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. This paper concludes that the increased link between energy and non-energy commodity prices, strong demand by developing countries - when the current economic downturn reverses course - and changing weath er patterns will be the dominant forces that are likely to shape developments in commodity markets.
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    Book (series)
    Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets
    jun/21
    2021
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    Against the background of fast expanding trade and a surge in food import bills, which has come to characterise much of developments shaping global food markets in 2020/21, early forecasts for 2021/22 point to resilient food trade and a continuation of strong international prices amidst many supply and demand uncertainties. This report provides supply and demand forecasts for basic foodstuffs, fish and fishery products along with price analysis and policy information. The report’s special feature of this report puts recent trends in global food trade under the spotlight, with particular focus on how commodity flows have measured-up during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to widespread predictions of a collapse in global markets, recent data show that trade continues to reach new heights. A novel metric is introduced that better captures the price momentum underway in international markets. Food Outlook is published by the Markets and Trade Division of FAO as part of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It is a biannual publication (November and June) focusing on developments in global food markets. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with another major GIEWS publication, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, especially with regard to the coverage of cereals. Food Outlook is available in English. The summary section is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish

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