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Human security and El Niño/La Niña: Towards a new response framework for recurring and extreme weather events










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    Working paper
    How do extreme weather events affect livestock herders’ welfare? Evidence from Kyrgyzstan 2018
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    This paper examines the impact of the harsh 2012 winter on livestock herding households in Kyrgyzstan and identifies policy options to increase household resilience to such shocks. While existing studies mostly focus on rainfall shocks in tropical or dry climate areas, this analysis examines the exceptionally harsh winter that hit Kyrgyzstan in 2012, which resulted in the death of 25 000 animals. Using a unique household panel survey, merged with observed temperature data, the analysis finds that, on average, the negative effects of the winter shock on household welfare are significant and persistent over time, leading to a 5 percent and a 8 percent decrease in households’ food consumption expenditure in the short- (2011–2013) and medium-run (2011–2016), respectively. When disaggregating by income quantiles, the evidence shows that negative impact is concentrated in the upper quantiles of the welfare distribution. Several policy options are identified as effective in mitigating the negative welfare impacts of the weather shock. First, supporting households to restock their herds following weather shocks is found to significantly improve medium-term welfare by 10 percent relative to those that did not restock. Restocking efforts can be addressed in a holistic manner that takes into account immediate household needs, while simultaneously building long-term resilience in the livestock sector. This may include mitigating animal losses through the development of local forage markets that increase the availability of winter forage, combined with efforts to improve the genetic pool of livestock species through breeding programmes that select for resiliency traits. Second, results show that households living in regions with higher access to public veterinary services had significantly better welfare outcomes following the winter shock. Improvements of veterinary services and strengthening community-based organizations focusing on livestock and pasture development may help herding households to cope with weather shocks.
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    Booklet
    Corporate general interest
    2015-2016 El Nino Early Action and Response for Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition 2016
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    The publication provides an overview of the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on agriculture and food security. El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months. While the main threat to food production is reduced rainfall and drought in some regions, El Niño can also cause heavy rains and flooding in other regions. Current consequences at global, regional and country level are highlighted (in cluding data on: crop production; livestock production; number of food insecure people) as well as FAO actions and funding requirements
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    Booklet
    Corporate general interest
    2015-2016 El Nino early action and response for agriculture, food security and nutrition 2016
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    The publication provides an overview of the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on agriculture and food security. El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months. While the main threat to food production is reduced rainfall and drought in some regions, El Niño can also cause heavy rains and flooding in other regions. Current consequences at global, regional and country level are highlighted (in cluding data on: crop production; livestock production; number of food insecure people) as well as FAO actions and funding requirements

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    Flagship
    The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021
    Transforming food systems for food security, improved nutrition and affordable healthy diets for all
    2021
    In recent years, several major drivers have put the world off track to ending world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. The challenges have grown with the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures. This report presents the first global assessment of food insecurity and malnutrition for 2020 and offers some indication of what hunger might look like by 2030 in a scenario further complicated by the enduring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also includes new estimates of the cost and affordability of healthy diets, which provide an important link between the food security and nutrition indicators and the analysis of their trends. Altogether, the report highlights the need for a deeper reflection on how to better address the global food security and nutrition situation.To understand how hunger and malnutrition have reached these critical levels, this report draws on the analyses of the past four editions, which have produced a vast, evidence-based body of knowledge of the major drivers behind the recent changes in food security and nutrition. These drivers, which are increasing in frequency and intensity, include conflicts, climate variability and extremes, and economic slowdowns and downturns – all exacerbated by the underlying causes of poverty and very high and persistent levels of inequality. In addition, millions of people around the world suffer from food insecurity and different forms of malnutrition because they cannot afford the cost of healthy diets. From a synthesized understanding of this knowledge, updates and additional analyses are generated to create a holistic view of the combined effects of these drivers, both on each other and on food systems, and how they negatively affect food security and nutrition around the world.In turn, the evidence informs an in-depth look at how to move from silo solutions to integrated food systems solutions. In this regard, the report proposes transformative pathways that specifically address the challenges posed by the major drivers, also highlighting the types of policy and investment portfolios required to transform food systems for food security, improved nutrition, and affordable healthy diets for all. The report observes that, while the pandemic has caused major setbacks, there is much to be learned from the vulnerabilities and inequalities it has laid bare. If taken to heart, these new insights and wisdom can help get the world back on track towards the goal of ending hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition in all its forms.
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    Booklet
    Corporate general interest
    Emissions due to agriculture
    Global, regional and country trends 2000–2018
    2021
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    The FAOSTAT emissions database is composed of several data domains covering the categories of the IPCC Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector of the national GHG inventory. Energy use in agriculture is additionally included as relevant to emissions from agriculture as an economic production sector under the ISIC A statistical classification, though recognizing that, in terms of IPCC, they are instead part of the Energy sector of the national GHG inventory. FAO emissions estimates are available over the period 1961–2018 for agriculture production processes from crop and livestock activities. Land use emissions and removals are generally available only for the period 1990–2019. This analytical brief focuses on overall trends over the period 2000–2018.
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    Booklet
    High-profile
    FAO Strategy on Climate Change 2022–2031 2022
    The FAO Strategy on Climate Change 2022–2031 was endorsed by FAO Council in June 2022. This new strategy replaces the previous strategy from 2017 to better FAO's climate action with the Strategic Framework 2022-2031, and other FAO strategies that have been developed since then. The Strategy was elaborated following an inclusive process of consultation with FAO Members, FAO staff from headquarters and decentralized offices, as well as external partners. It articulates FAO's vision for agrifood systems by 2050, around three main pillars of action: at global and regional level, at country level, and at local level. The Strategy also encourages key guiding principles for action, such as science and innovation, inclusiveness, partnerships, and access to finance.