The meaning of rehabilitation
Drought vulnerability and reserves
1.01 This paper examines post-drought rehabilitation policies to aid recovery in livestock production and in crop production mainly insofar as this is related to livestock. The paper is aimed at decision makers in government and external agencies who wish to consider the rehabilitation options open to them. It starts by discussing what is meant by rehabilitation and the - role played by reserves in affecting a population's vulnerability to drought. The second chapter examines the effects of drought on livestock and farming communities, stressing not only the direct effects, such as rising livestock death rates, but also those effects which operate through shifts in relative market prices and the income levels of affected groups. It goes on to discuss the macroeconomic implications of a drought-induced loss of livestock for the government budget, domestic markets and external trade. The following chapter investigates the likely speed of recovery in livestock and crop production in the absence of outside intervention. The range of policies open to governments and development' agencies is' considered in Chapter 4 and an assessment made of the likely impact and problems associated with each one. Chapter 5 presents material from a number of case-studies in order to show the nature of costs and returns involved and the particular issues associated with policy implementation in each case. Finally, Chapter 6 presents the main conclusions and suggests the priority areas for action for decision makers.
1.02 The paper focusses on policies which may be carried out in the short-to medium-term to mitigate drought-related losses, working ' on the assumption that losses of a certain magnitude have already taken place. The policies to be examined are those which will have a relatively rapid impact on reestablishing production and income levels among those affected by drought. This paper does not consider pre-drought measures, such as monitoring and early warning schemes, nor short- term relief measures, such as the provision of food for human and fodder for livestock populations. Nor will this paper investigate long-term policy questions, such as changes in the attribution and management of pastureland water resources in pastoral areas or re-settlement schemes. These are' obviously subjects of enourmous importance, affecting the management' of future drought-induced crises and the overall vulnerability of production systems to rainfall shortages.
1.03 The paper has selected three countries upon which to focus its attention, although evidence from elsewhere is also used to support or challenge conclusions reached. The countries chosen are Botswana, Ethiopia and Mali. The choice of these three was made because livestock production represents an important sector of activity in each case, in both rangeland and farming areas. All three countries have suffered bad drought in the past two decades and some evidence is available on drought-induced losses and the subsequent period of recovery. These countries have pursued a variety of policies in the past to speed up the rate of recovery in drought-affected sectors of the economy and this case-material provides useful lessons for policy makers. In the last few years, all three countries have had to cope with a further period of very low rainfall which has adversely affected large numbers of people and major sectors of the economy. Consequently, at this moment' the question of post drought rehabilitation policy is uppermost in the minds of many decision makers in government and in development agencies. Assuming that 1985 sees a return to more normal levels of rainfall, a major programme faces the development community in helping governments and producers to re-establish viable and less-vulnerable systems of production.
1.04 There are several possible definitions of rehabilitation depending on how one interprets the restoration of former levels of production and income. Rehabilitation could mean restoring particular systems of production practised by people to their former level of operation by, for example, replacing those factors of production (livestock, seed, equipment) that have been lost as a result of the drought. Alternatively, rehabilitation could imply the re establishment of the peoples' concerned capacity to produce and earn an income, a definition which includes the first definition as only one among a number of other possibilities.
1.05 The question of what is meant by rehabilitation must also consider the aims of the different parties involved. Rehabilitation for the government will comprise several macro-economic objectives, such as restoring its tax revenue and the nation's earnings from livestock exports and ensuring a sufficient supply of meat on the domestic market' as well as the, regeneration of employment and income levels for producers hit by the drought. For individual producers directly affected by drought, the latter issue is likely to be of much greater importance than objectives at the macro-economic level, Thus, the government may consider the main goal of rehabilitation to have been achieved once total livestock numbers have regained their former levels. However, while national herd numbers may have been re-built, individual herders may not have re-established their pre-drought position and for them the need for rehabilitation remains.
1.06 Rehabilitation will mean different things to different people and the various measures taken to rehabilitate different aspects of production may occasionally be in conflict. Rehabilitation should not necessarily be taken to mean the restoration of the exact situation which existed before the drought took place, Rather? it can be more usefully interpreted to mean the reestablishment of general levels of production and incomes for drought-affected parties be they governments, herders or farmers' but along lines which may in detail differ significantly from those that existed before the drought took piece.
1.07 While it is not the purpose of this paper to identify the frequency of droughts of varying severity nor likely future trends, it should be noted that the intensity and consequences of a drought cannot be forecast simply on the basis of the percentage shortfall in rainfall. AA 25% rainfall deficit does not necessarily cause a 25% fall in crop production or 825°,6 fall in pasture and associated livestock production. In assessing the consequences of a given rainfall deficit, account must be taken of the pressure of demand on the systems of production involved. For example, where livestock numbers are at the limit of what can be supported by natural grazing in a good year, a 25% drop in rainfall will cause heavier losses than where livestock numbers at the start of the drought were proportionately lower. Similarly, where farmers can only expect to satisfy basic subsistence needs in a normal year' a 15% fall in yields will have far more severe consequences than where farmers operate on a wider margin of surplus. Thus, the level of demand upon resources and the size of reserves within the system under study are important factors in determining the actual impact of a given rainfall deficit.
1.08 In general, the level of demand upon resources has been rising due to growth in human and animal numbers, so that even with no obvious downward trend in rainfall levels, one would nevertheless expect to see a greater incidence of drought-induced losses (Sandford, 1977). Where there are both adverse rainfall trends and rapid demographic growth, as has been the ease in the Sahel over the last two decades, the frequency and severity of crises due to rainfall shortage will inevitably increase, unless more drought-resistant systems of production are established.
1.09 The existence of reserves is an important factor in affecting the way in which a drought-induced shortfall in some commodity affects the welfare of the individual household, community, region or nation-state. Farmers and herders hold reserves in the form of livestock, gold or other assets, such as a trading business. Reserves at the national level are composed of alternative sources of food? foreign exchange or government revenue. Droughts unfortunately only receive the attention of the world community after several years of rainfall deficit, by which time most people have exhausted their available reserves and approach complete destitution.
