Effects of drought on the pastoral sector
Effects of drought on the farming sector.
The coincidence of livestock and arable droughts.
The macro-economic impact of drought.
2.01 Diagram 2.1 summarises the main effects of drought on pastoral groups, the importance of each item depending on the intensity of the drought and patterns of livestock production and marketing. A fall in fodder availability due to low rainfall is the first main effect of drought on livestock production systems; in some areas, low rainfall also causes a drop in the availability of drinking water, precluding the effective grazing of certain pastures. Fertility levels and the timing of conception are strongly related to the nutritional status of female animals. In normal years, cattle in the Sahel betray a highly seasonal calving pattern, most conceptions taking place in the mid to late rainy season (July to October) followed by calving in the late dry season leading up to the rains (April to June). In a drought year, animals suffer both a lower rate of conception, due to a tardy and incomplete return to peak bodyweight during the rains, and higher rates of miscarriage and stillbirth in the subsequent period of pregnancy and calving, due to the high level of stress experienced by animals as the dry season proceeds. Thus, drought in one year will lead to lower calving rates in the following year. This fall in the number of new calves entering the herd is further aggravated by high mortality rates among young stock.
2.02 Milk output falls as a female's access to fodder is reduced and, below a certain level of intake, lactation ceases completely. This fall in milk availability affects not only the calf's nutritional status but also the consumption level of the herder's family, which relies for part of its food requirements on offtake of milk from their animals. In normal years, humans are often in tight competition with calves for the small amount of milk available from females in the herd. A drought-induced milk shortage will intensify this rivalry.
2.03 Animal liveweight falls as grazing becomes scarce, reducing the value of stock as meat animals. This loss of condition also makes them less valuable for the transport of goods and pulling of loads, such as in ploughing, drawing water, etc.
Diagram 2.1. Effects of drought on pastoral areas
2.04 Death rates increase with the fall in liveweight and increased susceptibility to disease. Death rates in times of drought are usually particularly high among certain species and classes of stock' cattle, horses and donkeys being in general less resistant than sheep, goats and camels. Young animals, elderly stock and pregnant females are the most vulnerable within any particular species. Death rates increase as the period of drought continues, as the period of nutritional stress lengthens and as the degree of stress intensifies. A number of surveys have been carried out on stock losses during times of droughts and data from these sources are summarised in Appendix A. As expected, rates vary widely from one species to another and from one drought situation to another.
2.05 Increased demand for grain for human consumption. In most pastoral systems, grains provide an important, though seasonally variable part of the diet. For example among the WodaaBe Fulani of Niger, it is estimated that cereals provide at least 50% of overall calorie requirements, this varying from 20-25% in the rains to more than 70% in the hot dry season (White, 1984). In times of drought, a pastoral household's dependence on grain intensifies' due to falling supplies of milk from having fewer calves born and lower milk offtake per cow. The increased need to buy grains during drought coincides with a fall in pastoralists' purchasing power, resulting from a fall in stock condition, stable or falling livestock prices and rapidly rising grain prices, caused by a drought-induced fall in farm output.
2.06 Sales from herds rise sharply as herders seek to salvage some value from their animals before they die and to buy food for their family. Initially, the least essential members of the herd are sold - male calves and adults' elderly females and those with a poor calving history. As the drought period lengthens, however, herd productivity falls further as does the number of non-essential stock available for sale. Hereders will then be forced into sales of breeding females, a strategy which indicates a situation of acute stress' since females represent herd capital, crucial to the continued maintenance and future growth of herd numbers. On the other hand' the herder is usually faced with little choice but to liquidate his livestock capital, given the immediate food needs of his family, in the context of a rapid fall in alternative sources of income and ability to purchase food. Several writers have documented this shift in relative prices of grain and livestock in times of drought. For example, Seaman et al (1978) found that the amount of grain which could be purchased with the proceeds from the sale of one adult camel had fallen from 1,700 kgs to 500 kgs over the period 1972-74 in Hararghe, Ethiopia. Similarly, in the case of Niger the value of a young ox was reported to have fallen from the equivalent of 832 kgs of millet in 1972 to 406 kgs in 1973 (SEDES, 1976). Sen (1981) combines data on losses due to livestock deaths with those from falling purchasing power and shows that the ability of pastoralists to feed themselves fell by a staggering 84 to 92% during the drought years of the early 1970s in the Ogaden and Wollo regions of Ethiopia (Table 7.7). The high proportion of animals sold made up by females in times of drought is shown by data from a survey done at Niamey abbatoir in June 1973, where 70%-of slaughtered stock were females, in comparison with around 30% in more normal years (Boeckm et al., 1974). Germen (1975) notes the same high sales of females in the case of the drought in southeast Ethiopia, with a large number of such stock either being slaughtered in local towns or being sent to the meat market of Addis Ababa.
2.07 Outmigration of labour from the pastoral sector. One means by which the pastoral human population can temporarily adapt to the fall in herd productivity caused by drought is to send some of its members elsewhere, thereby reducing the number dependent on the herd for their support. At the same time, the emigrants may start to earn an income which can help the family left behind to buy some of its food needs. There are, however, likely to be negative effects on herd productivity from this outmigration of labour, which tends to consist of young adult males, the most productive workers in the pastoral economy and crucial to the efficient management of livestock in semi-arid conditions. Researchers in both East and West Africa have noted the drop in efficiency of herd management following the outflow of labor in Mauritania and northeast Mali where the pastoral sector has lost much of its servile labour force (Bonte, 1975; Marty, 1975); in Niger where many households must send part of their workforce on migration during the dry season when the labour demands of watering and herding stock are acute (White, 1984); and in Kenya, where the flow of migrants from the Boran economy has meant that more distant pastures can no longer be effectively used and protected, leading to bush encroachment or invasion by neighbouring pastoral groups and that areas close to Boran settlement sites are overused, leading to low herd productivity and localised pasture degradation (Dahl, 1979; Hogg, 1980).
2.08 Migration by herds to other grazing areas. In times of pasture shortage, a common strategy by herd-owners is to take their animals to other grazing areas where they hope to find better conditions. In the case of the Sahel, herds are Usually moved south in drought years, to higher rainfall zones or to areas of higher grazing potential such as flood retreat pastures and irrigation schemes. Conflicts are likely to arise where there is a large inflow of animals into an area occupied by other herders or by farming groups. Herd-owners will be competing among themselves for limited pasture and water resources. Farmers will fear the damage done to their crops when herds enter an area before the harvest is ended; additionally' the often substantial livestock holdings of farming communities will face increased competition for grazing around the settlement as a result of the inflow of herds from elsewhere. The significance of these conflicts between herding and farming communities depends on the extent to which mutually beneficial relations can also be set up, based on the exchange of output from the farm (grain, crop residues) for livestock products (milk, manure, live animals).
2.09 Long distance migration by pastoral groups into unfamiliar areas also poses risks to the herd from exhaustion and from the change in pasture species and diet for incoming stock. In addition, movement into higher rainfall zones often brings herds into contact with a new range of diseases and parasites. In the West African case, Sahelian herds are particularly vulnerable to infection from tsetse when entering southern pastures and experience high losses as a result.
2.10 Changes in the distribution of wealth. Drought brings about important changes in the distribution of wealth and access to income among those affected. This is due to the unequal incidence of drought and the differing capacities of producers to protect themselves and their assets in time of crisis. It is widely agreed that droughts tend to have a stratifying effect within communities, the weaker members becoming impoverished further while the rich are able to minimise their-losses and may even increase their assets during such periods of stress (O'Leary, 1980; Sandford, 1977; Boeckm et al, 1974; van Apeldorn, 1981). Drought is often seen as a mechanism through which there is a periodic "sloughing off" of the poorest households from the traditional pastoral sector, this human population outflow serving to restore equilibrium between man, animals and pasture (Barth 1961; Johnson, 1973). This outmigration may be only temporary and as conditions improve so do the prospects for re-absorption of these people into the pastoral economy. Thus, Dupire's work (1972) among the Fulani of Niger details several case-studies of households which had been forced to leave the pastoral sector through stock losses but who were then able to re-establish themselves as cattle-owners over time by their involvement in farming, trading and the successful management of small stock holdings. Re-establishment after drought may not always be so easy and for many, drought losses of livestock capital will mean having to turn permanently to new ways of earning an income.
2.11 Drought affects herd-owners differently depending on their level of livestock wealth and their access to other resources. In general, the data supports the view that large herd-owners suffer proportionately fewer losses than small herd-owners (Tyc, 1976, Campbell, 1978; Tacher, 1983). Even when a similar proportional loss takes place among herds of au sizes, owners of larger herds are more likely to end the drought period with a herd big enough to form a breeding nucleus' while those with only a few animals at the start of the drought may see their holdings fall to zero, due especially to the need for stock sales to purchase food needs. Large stockholders will also be better able to minimise their losses by policies of herd dispersion and species diversification. Moreover, to the extent that wealthy herders also have assets in other sectors of the economy - such as a trading business or Urban property - when drought hits their livestock assets they can fall back on incomes received from elsewhere In large part, it is this capacity of the wealthy to transform animal assets into less drought-vulnerable capital which Insures their greater viability in the face of drought.
2.12 Diagram 2.2 summarises the main effects of drought on the farming sector, each element of which is discussed below.
Diagram 2.2. Effects of Drought on Farming Areas
2.13 Fall in crop production. The most immediate effect of drought on the farming sector is a fall in crop production, due to inadequate and poorly distributed rainfall. Farmers are faced with an inadequate harvest to feed their families and to fulfill their other commitments. Livestock sales act as a buffer in times of hardship, farmers disinvesting in these assets to buy food. The first animals to be sold are usually those which make the least contribution as inputs to farm production, such as sheep and goats. However, as the period of drought-induced food deficit lengthens, farmers will have to start selling transport and draft animals, such as donkeys and work oxen - and breeding stock - which constitute the basis of the household's wealth. Thus, in the Ethiopian highland areas, stock are usually disposed of in the following order: sheep and goats, then younger cattle, with horses, donkeys and work oxen being sold as a last resort (Wood, A.P., 1976), oxen being of especial importance as they permit the timely preparation of land before sowing and thus maximise the chances of a good yield. Similarly, among Bambara millet farmers in central Mali, work oxen are only sold when all other avenues for getting cash have been exhausted (Fulton and Toulmin, l982). In Botswana, while both work oxen and breeding stock are highly valued, Vierich provides evidence of farmers preferring to sell their oxen in order to keep their few breeding females from whom they can re-establish their oxen holdings in the post-drought period (Vierich and Sheppard, 1980).
2.14 Fodder production falls. Where crops have been badly affected by drought, fodder is also likely to have suffered, although output from natural pastures tends to be less vulnerable to drought than crop production. Low rainfall causes poor pasture growth and may also lead to a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues. However, the evidence on this latter point is mixed, with some writers suggesting that even in years of harvest failure crop residues may be an important source of forage for village and visiting herds, these residues often being the only output to be gained from fields (van Apeldorn 1981). Insufficient fodder around the village leads to a loss in weight and deaths among some stock, especially where immigrant herds put further pressure on limited local pastures. While the response of most pastoral groups to fodder shortage is to move themselves and their herds elsewhere, this is not an option so easily pursued by livestock-owning farmers, due to their lower herd number and less familiarity with regular transhumance. In addition, many farm households will have insufficient labour both to take their animals to other grazing areas and also to continue with necessary farming operations. Thus, sedentary herds can be particularly badly hit in times of drought. An example of this is found in the Nioro area of north-west Mali, where a recent survey estimates deaths among draft animals (oxen, donkeys and horses) at between 50 and 70% over the period 1983-84 (FAO, 1984c). These losses are caused by pasture shortages, exacerbated by herds from the north on their way to southern pastures, the sedentary nature of these draft animals and the normal dependence of horses (and to some extent donkeys) on a regular grain ration to supplement natural grazing, a supplement which is no longer available given the very poor harvests of recent years.
2.15 The overall effect of the above two points is to reduce the draft capacity of the farming sector, leading to lower crop output in the subsequent cultivation season. Loss of livestock around the farming settlement also reduces the household's supply of dung, a product of considerable importance 'both as a fuel where wood is scarce and as a means to retain the fertility of regularly cropped soils.
2.16 The role and importance of dung. This varies across farming systems according to a number of factors. Shortage of fuelwood makes dung a highly valued commodity in many parts of the Ethiopian highlands where other sources of fuel are scarce. Dung is estimated to be the second most important product gained from livestock after draft power in such areas providing 80% of the households fuel needs (Gryseels and Anderson, 1983). In addition, sales of dung cakes make a contribution to the household's cash income. In many parts of West Africa, dung is a major element in the exchanges established between pastoral and farming communities. Transhumant herders agree to station their herds overnight on farmers' plots in return for grain, cash or water. This manuring of fields produces a considerable increase in crop yields and is of especial value in marginal farming zones in the Sahel as it enables a large area to be cultivated with rapid crop varieties, such as 60-to 80-day millets which are able to reach maturity within the very short growing period. Research in a Bambara farming village in central Mali reported a fivefold increase in millet yields as a result of manuring soils, giving an implied mean value to the dung produced by each cow equal to 20-40 kgs of grain, worth US$8-10(Toulmin, 1983a and forthcoming).
2.17 Drought affects the availability of dung to the farm household in two ways. Firstly, the number of animals owned by the farming population falls with deaths and sales among stock. Even where poorer households continue to own some animals, the extreme vulnerability of such households in times of drought may force them to sell the dung from their stock rather than use it for raising their own crop yields (Hill 1972, van Apeldorn, 1981). Thus, drought is likely to increase the gap between poor and rich households in terms of their access to dung.
2.18 Secondly, drought affects the size and movements of pastoral herds. The quantity of dung potentially available from pastoralists' animals will fall in line with losses of stock during drought. In addition, the geographical distribution of dung supplies will change as a result of changes in patterns of transhumance. In the Sahelian context, drought conditions will force many herd-owners to move further south than normal out of the Sahel, in their search for fodder and water Farmers in the southern Sahel, who regularly rely on visiting herds for their supplies of dung, will find their access to this commodity greatly reduced. By contrast yet further to the south, dung supplies will increase for those farming communities savannah areas which are hosts to immigrant pastoralists.
2.19 For many countries, with limited use of chemical fertilisers, dung is of great importance in maintaining crop yields as well as providing a renewable fuel source. A drought induced reduction in the availability of this input will have consequences for levels of farm output, for household incomes and for the pressure of demand on other sources of energy. However, little or no discussion was found in the literature surveyed of the relative value of dung in different uses nor of the consequences for different groups of a fall in the supply of this commodity.
2.20 Oxen losses from deaths vs. sales. The distribution of work oxen losses between deaths and sales will vary according to the circumstances in which drought has taken place and with the constraints faced by different producers. A report by the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission of Ethiopia for the province of Wollo for 1974 presents data showing almost all losses to have been due to deaths rather than sales, with 71% dead from starvation as opposed to 19% sold, leaving 2% disposed of by other means and 8% remaining (Wolde Mariam, 1984). By contrast, Wood's survey of farmers in the northern highlands of Ethiopia found that most livestock losses were the result of distress sales rather than deaths from inadequate fodder (Wood, 1976).
2.21 For Botswans, the number and proportion of work oxen in the national herd declined as a result of the 1978/79 drought, from 19.3% to 14.85% for herds surveyed in the hard veld and from 17.8% to 13.8% for those in the sand veld (Vierich and Sheppard, 1980). These figures indicate that there must have been considerably higher rates of offtake through sales of work oxen as opposed to other cattle during the drought, since oxen tend to have higher rates of survival than most other classes of stock. Little or no evidence is available on work oxen losses for the Sahelian drought of 1968-73, probably as a result of the fairly low losses involved. However, the recent survey in north-west Mali, quoted earlier, points to very heavy losses among draft animals due to deaths rather than sales (FAO, 1984c).
2.22 Outmigration of labour. As in the case of the pastoral sector, one means by which farm households try to make ends meet in times of crop failure is by releasing labour to earn income elsewhere; at the same time this reduces the burden on household food reserves. The net effect on farm productivity depends on whether this migration continues into the next cultivation season, thereby reducing the capacity of the household to farm on its former scale. This will be the case where shortage of food is so acute that the household must depend on the earnings of some of its members to feed the rest of the family until the next harvest.
2.23 Changes in the distribution of wealth. The experience of different farm households in times of drought will be determined by their ownership of assets, access to incomes from other sources and the extent to which these assets and incomes are less affected by drought than are harvests. The most vulnerable amongst those hit by drought will be those with few assets of value to sell, those who most need to purchase grain due to an absence of their own household reserves, and those who cannot gain access to food through other means, like borrowing, coercion or theft. Wood (1976) shows in his study of farmers in northern Ethiopia over the drought years of the early 1970s that the speed with which farmers became seriously short of food varied very considerably, due to their differing access to income sources. The richest farmers were even in a position to benefit by acquiring land and other assets from distress sales by their poorer neighbours. Sen (1981) formalises the analysis of differential impacts on incomes and wealth in times of crisis in his essay on "Poverty and Famines". He introduces the idea of "food entitlement an individual's overall access to food depending not only on his direct crop production but also on his access through the market - by sales of labour and other commodities - and through non-market channels such as social networks and re-distributive systems. Relative price movements change the entitlements of certain groups, making it more difficult for them to satisfy their food needs. This is seen in the case of pastoralists who face rising grain prices but falling prices of livestock as drought intensifies. Many farmers are in a similar situation, needing to sell livestock, labour or land in markets where an excess supply of these commodities has reduced their power to purchase foodstuffs.
2.24 A given rainfall shortage is likely to affect livestock and cropping sectors differently. In areas where crops and animals occupy the same ecological zone, farming is likely to be a more risky business, herds being able to compensate for localised rainfall shortages by movement to better favoured areas. Thus, droughts hitting crop production are reckoned to occur more frequently in Botswana than are those seriously affecting the livestock sector (Jones, 1979). Droughts in the livestock sector tend to be the product of a series of years with below average rainfall, causing a growing imbalance in the availability of grazing to animal needs. In the case of Sahelian counties, however, the farm sector occupies the higher rainfall zones to the south of the main grazing areas. Since variability in rainfall becomes more marked as rainfall totals decline, the pastoral sector is particularly prone to drought from the low level and erratic distribution of rainfall within and between years. Thus, in the drought years of 1968 to 1973, it was the pastoral zones of the northern Sahel which were especially badly hit, while many southern farming regions experienced very few drought-induced losses. As in the case of Botswana, it was the progressive effect of a number of years with low rainfall which caused the massive scale of losses felt by more northerly areas.
2.25 Account must be taken of the interaction between drought losses in the crop and livestock sectors for two reasons" Firstly, grain forms an important part of the pastoralist's diet even in normal times. In periods of drought, as herd productivity falls, herders come to rely even more heavily on grain for their food needs. Where both the livestock and farm sectors have been hit by drought, the pastoralist's rising demand for grain is confronted by a drop in locally available supplies and by a rapid escalation of cereal prices as both farmers and herders must buy their food on the market, resulting in a sharp decline in herders' purchasing power. If drought has only hit the livestock sector, grain prices will be subject to much less upward pressure. Secondly, farmers commonly own a considerable number of livestock, both those used for cultivation such as work oxen and those kept as an investment, such as breeding stock. As was seen in an earlier section, these animals provide the farmer with a margin of security being sold in times of need to pay for food and other needs. Widespread drought thus worsens the position of both farmers and pastoralists. The only farmers to gain from widespread drought are those fortunate enough to have sufficient stocks of grain remaining from previous harvests to invest in livestock while relative grain to livestock prices are in their favour. Evidence from the 1968-73 drought in the Sahel shows that certain farmers were able to expand their animal holdings rapidly by the exchange of grain for stock on highly advantageous terms, as drought conditions intensified (Marty, 1975; Arnal and Garcia, 1974; Lewis, 1979).
2.26 Several countries have suffered a substantial drop in the size of the national herd following drought. For example, the Niger cattle herd was estimated to have fallen by 48% in 1972-3, from 4.5 million head to 2.3 million. Recent estimates put the losses in cattle herds over the period 1982-84 at 62%, from a population of 3.5 m head in 1982. Similarly, the cattle population of Botswana fell by 32% between 1962 and 1966 from a population of 1.35 m head in 1962 (Campbell, 1979). From 1981-84, the national herd is estimated to have decreased by 20% to 2.4 m head, following 3 years of drought (FAO, 1984a). These reductions in livestock numbers do not represent a total loss to the national income and wealth of the country, since some proportion of these losses will have been slaughtered for domestic consumption while others will have been exported. The reduction in the national herd does, however have implications for the country's ability to satisfy future demand from domestic and foreign markets in the short- to medium-term, as herd numbers will take time to re-build, the government is also likely to suffer a loss to its income from the tax it normally raises on livestock-related activities. A summary of the main effects of drought on macroeconomic variables is shown in Diagram 2.3.
Diagram 2.3. Effects of Drought on Macro Economic Variables - FALL IN OUTPUT- FROM LIVESTOCK AND FARM SECTORS
|
GOVERNMENT BUDGET |
DOMESTIC MARKETS |
EXTERNAL TRADE |
|
- fall in revenues from direct taxes and export duties |
Livestock |
- short-term rise in number of stock exported |
|
- increased demand for government services, with shift to short-term relief. |
- longer term rise in prices as herds reconstitute |
- medium-to long-term fall in exports as herds reconstitute |
|
|
Grain |
- pressure on foreign trade balance from need to import grain and other relief supplies. |
|
|
- medium-term fall 1 in prices as harvests return to normal. |
|
2.27 The government budget. Drought causes a fall in government receipts from those areas and sectors affected by the shortfall in rain. Livestock and crop production represent a major proportion of GDP and 'provide many of the opportunities for employment in 'sub-Saharan' Africa. Governments gain revenue from these sectors either directly, in the form of taxes on livestock holdings and farmer populations or in the 'form of grain quotas, or indirectly, from taxes on the slaughter of stock and exports of livestock and grain. The direct taxation of livestock populations is estimated to provide between 5 and 10% of government revenue in states such as Chad, Burkina Faso and Mali '(Berg, 1975). This tax was lifted in several Sahelian countries over the period 197475, partly to reduce the stress on herding populations in the wake of heavy livestock losses and partly as a result of the very great problems posed by the levy of this tax, given large scale movements by herds across the region and the difficulties of conducting a new census of livestock numbers. Compensation was paid to those countries lifting the tax by the European Development Fund as part of the latter's programme of aid in the post-drought period. Export duties on livestock and their products provide government with additional revenue. However, as may be seen, this source of income is also vulnerable to drought losses. In the case of Mali, the percentage of government tax revenue derived from livestock and meat exports fell from 6.0% for the period 1968-73 to 3.3% for 1974-76, as a result of the decline in livestock exports after the drought (Delgado, 1980).
2.28 In the case of Botswana, taxes are levied on a wide range of livestock products: on domestic production and exports of meat, blood-, bone-and meat-meal, hides and skins (Anteneh, 1985). Revenue from the livestock sector has grown from 815,000 Pula in 1970/71 to 2.01 m Pula in; 1981/82, representing 1.02% and 0.8% of the government's overall revenue. While a fall in livestock exports, such as that experienced in 1978 and' 1980 following outbreaks of foot-and-moth disease, reduces government revenue, Botswana is in the relatively fortunate position of having substantial earnings from its diamond export industry which cushions the impact of this fall.
2.29 Domestic markets for livestock: Diagram 2.4 shows the relative price movements of livestock and grain typically found over the years spanning a drought and subsequent period of recovery. Stable or declining stock prices during the drought are caused by rapid increases in offtake as herders try to salvage some value from their stock and as they face rising prices for their staple food, grain. Marketing systems are usually unable to cope with the large increases in animals supplied, due to a lack of transport and storage facilities with which to spread this increase over space and time. As noted earlier, as the period of drought lengthens and as the purchasing power of herders is increasingly eroded, pastoralists will be forced to sell their productive stock, composed of young and breeding females. Only once grain supplies become relatively more plentiful with the next harvest or with substantial food imports do relative livestock to grain prices reverse themselves. Price levels for all stock are likely to be high in the years following a drought as stable or rising domestic and foreign demand is faced by a low rate of offtake from herds depleted in the former period. Prices will be especially high for those species and classes in particular demand, such as small stock, valued for their rapid rates of reproduction, and female stock of all species (Sutter, 1982; Marty, 1975).
2.30 In the ease of Mali, urban meat prices doubled over the first half of 1975, following losses of stock estimated at 30-35% over the previous two years, due to a high level of urban demand coupled with high export prices for stock. This large rise in price occurred despite efforts by government to set a controlled price for meat and a short term ban on the export of livestock. Data presented by Sutter (1982) for Niger shows a rapid rise in the price received for an export bull, showing a tripling from 20,000 FCFA in 1974 to more than 60,000 FCFA in 1977. Meat prices in Ndjamena showed a parallel trend, quadrupling over the five years from 1970-75 (Tyc, 1976). These price increases for livestock and meat compare with a general increase in price levels of 20-30% per year over the period 1972-76 (ILCA, 1979).
2.31 Domestic markets for grain: The price movement of grain over a period of drought has been described above. The extent to which grain prices rise during drought obviously depends on the size of drought-induced crop losses and how far these can be made good by imports of grain from elsewhere. The speed with which farm production returns to normal levels after the drought is determined by the level of loss in productive capacity - draft animals, seed, outflow of labour, damage to soils - which can only be reconstituted over a period of years. The question of speed of rehabilitation is looked at in more detail in a later section of this paper In general, however, crop production will return to normal more rapidly than does output from the livestock sector, due to the slow rates of reproduction and herd reconstitution in the latter case.
2.32 Recent trends in the prices of grain and livestock in the Sahel show the development of a situation very similar to that witnessed in the early 1970s. Considerable price rises for grain as seen in Diagram 2.5 below have been coupled with an almost total collapse of livestock markets throughout the Sahel. Several observers have noted that by early 1985, livestock were trading at one-tenth of their value in previous years, a prime male export animal being sold for 1,000-15,000 FCFA whereas it would have fetched up to 150,000 FCFA a year or two earlier. While part of this large fall in market prices is attributable to high rates of herd offtake leading to excess supply, it is also partly due to changes in the demand for meat in coastal markets. Of particular importance has been the closure by Nigeria of her frontiers and increasingly tight controls over movements of foreign exchange. In addition, countries like Ivory Coast have continued to import large quantities of frozen meat from overseas, thereby reducing the level of demand for Sahelian livestock.
Diagram 2.5. Market prices for millet in Bamako, Mali, 1982-84
2.33 External trade. The external trade balance will also be affected by a drought induced fall in livestock production. A fall in the national herd reduces the number of animals available for satisfying domestic demand and for meeting export targets. In addition, disease problems may be aggravated by drought, because of the ensuing large scale movements of stock between areas. These disease problems may lead to the closure of certain export markets. The way in which the stock shortfall is distributed between the two markets (i.e. domestic and export) depends on a variety of factors which include income and price elasticities of demand in the two markets, changes in income levels, inflation rates, the degree of substitutability between animals destined primarily for the domestic as opposed to the external market and government interventions aimed at shifting stock in one or the other direction. Where a strong level of urban demand exists, this may absorb most of the available offtake from herds in the immediate post-drought period, so that livestock exports fall by an amount far greater than the percentage drought losses of stock (ILCA, 1979).
2.34 The data available on both domestic slaughters and exports of live animals and meat is often very inadequate, so that the exact distribution of livestock losses between the two markets cannot be gauged with certainty. Diagram 2.6 below presents cats for cattle on estimated total domestic consumption and exports for Mali and Botswana. In the case of Mali, it can be seen that the export trade was relatively static following the 1973 drought, not expanding until 1979, after which the numbers exported have risen rapidly. This increase in exports seems to have coincided with a fall in domestic consumption of beef, probably as a result of a shift in the relative prices of beef in domestic and export markets. The low level of cattle exports in the post-1973 period may be accounted for by several factors: (i) the drop in national herd size by an estimated 30-35%, reducing the number of animals available for meeting domestic and foreign demand; (ii) the priority given by the government in the immediate post-drought period to satisfying domestic demand, given the rapid inflation in meat prices noted earlier and the importance of urban consumers as a political force; and (iii) the turning by Ivory Coast to non-African supplies of meat - mainly frozen meat imports from Argentina - to make up for the temporary shortfall in meat supplies from its traditional Sahelian sources. As a consequence, Malian exports of meat now face a somewhat "softer" market in Ivory Coast than was formerly the case, consumers being ready to turn to cheaper supplies of frozen meat should imports of Sahelian stock become too expensive. However, it should be remembered that the figures must be treated with caution, since controlled* domestic slaughters of cattle probably account for only 50% of total slaughters while controlled* exports of cattle are thought to represent only 25% of the total actually exported (Delgado, 1980).
* "Controlled" exports and slaughters are those which take place through officially recognised channels and for which the relevant taxes have been paid. Thus, uncontrolled exports refer to those which cross international frontiers away from border posts and uncontrolled domestic slaughters are those which take place, for example, in herders' camps and farming villages. The proportions of controlled to uncontrolled activity are estimated by Delgado (1980) for the mid-1970s. However, he emphasizes that there is no reason to believe that controlled activity remains a constant proportion of total trade, given changes in government policy, customs duties, etc.
Diagram 2.6. Domestic slaughters and exports of cattle from Mali and Botswana. 1971-82.
2.35 In the case of Botswana, all cattle exports pass through the Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) and confidence can thus be placed on the export figures. However, domestic slaughters cannot be known with accuracy as many of these take place in rural areas. Export figures in Diagram 2.6 refer to metric tons of boneless beef while domestic slaughters are presented in thousands of head. The figures show the effect of certain drought years on increasing export volume, such as in 1973 and 1979. In addition, there is a marked effect on meat exports from outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, which occurred in 1978 and 1980. Not only are there lower volumes of meat exported in these years, hut also the unit value of meat exports is reduced as particular high-price markets such as the EEC, forbid the importation of meat from areas infected with this disease. The figures for domestic slaughters show a generally rising trend with a sharp fall in the post-drought year of 1980, as expected.
