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Economic Analysis of supply and demand for food up to 2030

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1089











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    Economic analysis of supply and demand for fish, fishery products and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2022 – special focus on fish and fishery products. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1101. 2016
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    This circular analyses and forecasts future demand for and supply of food in sub-Saharan Africa, with a special focus on fish and fishery products. Eleven countries in the region were selected for in-depth analysis: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. With the population of sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 949 million in 2015 to reach 1.2 bil lion by 2025, food production systems will be placed under growing pressure in an already difficult setting of rising urbanization and environmental degradation. Various population dynamics in the region will have a number of nuanced effects on the future demand for food. With the rate of population growth in 2022 expected to be outpace increased production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture, it is forecast that the region will be less self-sufficient in terms of food production than co mpared with the current situation, as well as compared with other regions of the world. Despite these findings, the overall increase in per capita income will also affect food demand and potentially improve nutrition for some.
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    Mapping supply and demand for animal-source foods to 2030 2011
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    Around 2.6 billion people in the developing world are estimated to have to make a living on less than $2 a day and of these, about 1.4 billion are ‘extremely’ poor; surviving on less than $1.25 a day. Nearly three quarters of the extremely poor – that is around 1 billion people – live in rural areas and, despite growing urbanization, more than half of the ‘dollar-poor’ will reside in rural areas until about 2035. Most rural households depend on agriculture as part of their livelihood and livesto ck commonly form an integral part of their production system. On the other hand, to a large extent driven by increasing per capita incomes, the livestock sector has become one of the fastest developing agricultural sub-sectors, exerting substantial pressure on natural resources as well as on traditional production (and marketing) practices. In the face of these opposing forces, guiding livestock sector development on a pathway that balances the interests of low and high income households and regions as well as the interest of current and future generations poses a tremendous challenge to policymakers and development practioners. Furthermore, technologies are rapidly changing while at the same time countries are engaging in institutional ‘experiments’ through planned and un-planned restructuring of their livestock and related industries, making it difficult for anyone to keep abreast with current realities. This ‘Working Paper’ Series pulls together into a single series different strands of work on the wide range of topics covered by the Animal Production and Health Division with the aim of providing ‘fresh’ information on developments in various regions of the globe, some of which is hoped may contribute to foster sustainable and equitable livestock sector development. In 2006 the FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit revised their estimates of prospective developments in food demand and consumption to 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006b). In this paper we take the estimates of supp ly and demand for animal-source foods and disaggregate them spatially for the years 2000 and 2030. By so doing we are able to present detailed maps and tables of change in supply and demand that are of direct use to researchers and decision makers in the livestock sector.
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