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FAO Crop Yield Forecasting Philosophy in National Food Early Warning Systems








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    Document
    An Introduction to the Art of Agrometereological Crop Yield Forecasting Using Multiple Regression
    Crop Yeald Forecasting and Agrometeorology Sub-Project UTF/BGD/029, ASIRP/DAE
    2001
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    It is suggested that the approach used by FAO and a number of developing countries for crop forecasting at the national level strikes a good compromise between input requirements and ease of validation. The article thus describes the FAO crop modelling and forecasting philosophy.
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    CM Box: Turn-Key Crop Monitoring and Forecasting Tool to Support National Food Security Analyses 2007
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    Crop condition monitoring and forecasting techniques have made enormous progress from the days of empirical statistical methods using weather variables that were very popular in the fifties and sixties. Using modern tools of agrometeorology and remote sensing it is now possible to issue a forecast of the likely outcome of the cropping season starting at the time of planting.
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    FAO-WMO Roving Seminar on Crop-Yield Weather Modelling. Lecture Notes and Exercises 2017
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    Crop-yield weather modelling refers to the techniques which can be used operationally to determine the likely effect of weather on yields. Although the incidence of weather conditions on yields is well established, its quantitative assessment is not always straightforward: time series analyses of agricultural statistics show that the inter-annual variability1 of crop yields can be roughly subdivided into 3 components : trend, direct weather factors and indirect weather effects (pests, diseases, weed competition, etc.).

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