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An Introduction to the Art of Agrometereological Crop Yield Forecasting Using Multiple Regression

Crop Yeald Forecasting and Agrometeorology Sub-Project UTF/BGD/029, ASIRP/DAE








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    Crop-yield weather modelling refers to the techniques which can be used operationally to determine the likely effect of weather on yields. Although the incidence of weather conditions on yields is well established, its quantitative assessment is not always straightforward: time series analyses of agricultural statistics show that the inter-annual variability1 of crop yields can be roughly subdivided into 3 components : trend, direct weather factors and indirect weather effects (pests, diseases, weed competition, etc.).
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    The paper describes the crop forecasting philosophy adopted by FAO in the ambit of national and regional food security projects in developing countries.
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    CM Box: Turn-Key Crop Monitoring and Forecasting Tool to Support National Food Security Analyses 2007
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    Crop condition monitoring and forecasting techniques have made enormous progress from the days of empirical statistical methods using weather variables that were very popular in the fifties and sixties. Using modern tools of agrometeorology and remote sensing it is now possible to issue a forecast of the likely outcome of the cropping season starting at the time of planting.

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