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ArticleStrategic foresight in forestry: How Canada and the United States use a neglected tool to build a green, healthy and resilient future
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.Strategic foresight is a tool for understanding the ways in which the future might unfold. It is a valuable tool for identifying and mitigating areas of risk while identifying opportunities for our forests, particularly in an age of uncertainty and accelerating change. In recent years, foresight has increasingly been adopted by governments, large organizations, and forward-looking business enterprises as a method to reduce risk for their operations. But forestry agencies have been relatively slow to adopt strategic foresight methods and perspectives. A key principle of foresight is the idea of multiple alternative futures. Rather than predicting exactly how the future is likely to unfold, foresight analysts identify several plausible futures. Foresight is a guide to identify potentially influential decisions, ideas, opportunities and threats. Both the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) and the United States Forest Service (USFS) are developing strategic foresight programs to help plan and operate in an environment of growing complexity, uncertainty and rapid change. The USFS has engaged in foresight in the agency’s R&D branch since 2010. The CFS’s foresight team provides advice to policymakers from within its strategic policy division and it builds capacity for forward thinking within the organization. The two organizations have recently partnered to share their findings and approaches. To that end, this paper shows how strategic foresight can help planners, managers, and policy makers understand the future of global forests, using insights from our respective agencies. We outline what foresight is, the suite of foresight tools and how they support proactive analysis and decision making, foresight’s usefulness for the forest sector, how it is practiced in North America, and how it may be beneficial for forestry globally. Keywords: Policies, knowledge management, innovation, research, partnerships ID: 3487592 -
DocumentHorizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety
Background paper 2: FAO Early Warning/Rapid Alert and Horizon Scanning, Food Safety Technical Workshop, Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
2014Also available in:
No results found.Many factors inside and outside the food production system(s) could directly and/or indirectly drive the emergence of important food safety hazards, risks and issues. It is important to identify these events at an early stage of the system or preferably prevent their occurrence. To improve food control systems at any level, the food control paradigm has shifted from reactionary to preventative (predictive) approaches. Effective monitoring of important drivers of change that could contribute to t he emergence of important hazards or issues is necessary at the global, regional, and/or country-level. Traditionally, various surveillance approaches and tools are used to identify and assess potential hazards, risks and issues and to provide recommendations for potential actions. While these traditional approaches are reasonably effective to identify immediate hazards and issues, there is a need to also predict important medium to long-term issues to allow for effective preventative actions. H orizon scanning/foresight/future scenario methodologies or approaches have been widely used across different sectors for many years, and more recently in food safety to identify potential medium and long-term hazards and opportunities. -
Brochure, flyer, fact-sheetStrategic Foresight Planning at Village Level - Integrating foresight methodology and analytics in the Participatory Forest and Agriculture Land Use Planning, Allocation and Management (pFALUPAM)
Part of the Land Resources Information Management System (LRIMS)
2022Also available in:
Foresight is the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or be needed in the future. The method Participatory Forest and Agriculture Land Use Planning, Allocation and Management (pFALUPAM) is used in Lao People’s Democratic Republic since 2012 for village level agricultural planning. The leaflet describes the insertion of foresight planning into the pFALUPAM method. The aim of this addition is to test the robustness of the village plan and to improve or provide more detail to build resilient and sustainable action plan based on agro-ecological zoning maps and locally adapted contextual scenarios.
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