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Foresight planning at village level

Using decision support scenarios








FAO. 2022. Foresight planning at village level – Using decision support scenarios. Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic.


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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    Foresight planning at village level: using decision support scenarios
    Workbook
    2022
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    The booklet presents a methodology developed by the activities of the projects “Strengthening Agro-climatic Monitoring and Information Systems (SAMIS) to improve adaptation to climate change and food security in Lao People's Democratic Republic” and “Sustainable Productivity in agriculture in the context of Climate Smart Agriculture and Agro-ecology”. This handbook aims at providing guidance and resource to implement foresight planning at the village level by presenting a full exercise to be conducted at the field level. The exercise is divided in five steps and should allow to visualise possible futures in 2030. The exercise is designed as an added section to the Participatory Forest and Agricultural Land Use Planning, Allocation and Management (pFALUPAM) manual. This document provides the supplementary materials such as tables, figures, and the pFALUPAM village plan and land use maps for Keosaenkham village that are to be used as example in the real case pFALUPAM exercises.
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    Strategic Foresight Planning at Village Level - Integrating foresight methodology and analytics in the Participatory Forest and Agriculture Land Use Planning, Allocation and Management (pFALUPAM)
    Part of the Land Resources Information Management System (LRIMS)
    2022
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    Foresight is the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or be needed in the future. The method Participatory Forest and Agriculture Land Use Planning, Allocation and Management (pFALUPAM) is used in Lao People’s Democratic Republic since 2012 for village level agricultural planning. The leaflet describes the insertion of foresight planning into the pFALUPAM method. The aim of this addition is to test the robustness of the village plan and to improve or provide more detail to build resilient and sustainable action plan based on agro-ecological zoning maps and locally adapted contextual scenarios.
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    State of the art agricultural land cover maps for the Lao People's Democratic Republic​
    Part of the Land Resources Information Management System (LRIMS)
    2021
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    The leaflet presents the activities of the second component of the project “Strengthening Agro-climatic Monitoring and Information Systems (SAMIS) to improve adaptation to climate change and food security in Lao PDR”. In collaboration with The Department of Agricultural Land Management (DALaM) under the Ministry of Agriculture (MAF) has, with financial support of FAO Laos and technical support from International FAO experts, produced the first national agricultural land cover map in the country. It has been generated using a random forest machine learning approach to identify different land uses from satellite imagery and is in both, technical standard and accuracy, state of the art. The map includes major production systems of Lao PDR, including shifting cultivation. In its first released version, the following land cover classes are depicted: paddy rice, annual crops, steep slope agriculture (shifting agriculture), maize, cassava, sugarcane, tea plantations, coffee plantations, orchards and other plantations, sparse natural vegetation, dense natural vegetation, bare areas, built-up areas, and water surfaces. The pixel resolution of the map is 10m, while for temporal resolution images across the whole year of analysis are used. It is calibrated with 2,740 field observation data and has currently an estimated error of 10%, the acceptable norm based on FAO expertise.

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