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Soybean prices, economic growth and poverty in Argentina and Brazil











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    Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments 2018
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    This study aims at exploring the implications for future economic growth and poverty of different agricultural price trajectories through scenario analysis. Agricultural prices are not a given but the end result of underlying changes in demand and supply. Acknowledging that the future is uncertain we assess the implications of contrasting developments in population, a key driver of agricultural prices, through its impact on demand. Using MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we develop three scenarios. The reference or baseline scenario is built upon the “Middle of the road” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2), projecting from 2010 to 2030 with no major divergence from historical patterns. We then construct alternative high and low price scenarios by varying assumptions on population growth. The aim is not to predict the future but to systematically think through how different paths of a key driver changes how the world may look. Any model covering the entire world economy uses a large number of assumptions with varying levels of empirical support. We therefore also highlight key assumptions which need more empirical scrutiny to improve our understanding of the likely direction of future development
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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    The contribution of public investment in the agricultural sector to economic growth and rural poverty reduction
    A high-level dialogue in Nicaragua based on a prospective analysis
    2020
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    In 2018, the government of Nicaragua requested technical assistance from FAO to carry out a prospective analysis of the Nicaraguan economy and the evolution of rural poverty, in the context of the restrictive economic conditions experienced in the country that year. Thus, the FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) in Rome, together with the FAO Country Office in Nicaragua (FAONI) and in close coordination and support with the country’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) and the Ministry of Agriculture (MAG), developed the study “Analysis of alternative ways of public investment and its impact on economic growth, agriculture and poverty reduction in Nicaragua.” This analysis generated quantitative evidence on the impact of agriculture on economic growth and poverty reduction. The results are clear: in all simulated scenarios, it was verified that an increase – by a value of 0.5 or 1 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – of public investment in the agricultural sector generates economic growth, which is reflected, among other things, in GDP growth that varies between 0.8 and 3.5 percent annually through 2030 depending on the scenario. Moreover, it is observed that the difference in the total poverty rate in rural areas with respect to the base scenario would range between 0.5 and 2.25 percentage points in the same period, depending on the agricultural investment scenario. With regard to extreme poverty, the difference is projected to be between 0.16 and 0.31 points. The ongoing high-level dialogue and collaboration between FAO and Nicaragua’s economic and fiscal policy-making authorities is an excellent example, which should be replicated elsewhere, of how FAO can influence a country’s public policies.
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    Book (series)
    Analysis of alternative routes of public investment in agriculture and their impact on economic growth and rural poverty reduction in Nicaragua 2020
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    In the face of the economic downturn that Nicaragua experienced in 2018 and the need for a recovery, the study provides a comparative analysis of how investments in productive infrastructure in different agri-food sectors would impact growth and poverty. The analysis is based on scenarios generated through an economy-wide model representing the Nicaraguan economy and its sectors. The model includes financing constraints and the study explores different financing options for the new investments.

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