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Global Tea Market Situation and Emerging Issues

24th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Tea









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    Current global market situation and emerging issues - CCP:TE 22/CRS 1
    Intergovernmental Group on Tea (IGG) meeting, 23 February 2022
    2022
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    Meeting document
    COVID-19 and beyond: Emerging trends in global tea markets - CCP:TE 22/CRS 3 2022
    While the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to contain it had only limited effects on tea markets, namely in terms of production and trade, there appear to be longer-term shifts in consumer preferences. With increasing incomes, per capita demand for tea is increasing in many developing and emerging economies. More mature markets can be characterized by three main trends in tea consumption: (i) increasing competition from herbal teas; (ii) demand for more variety in the traditional tea market; and (iii) increasing demand for sustainably sourced products. At the same time, structural rigidities and lack of market information and transparency are seen as factors that may hamper the effective responsiveness of the tea industry to changing environments in traditional and new tea markets.
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    International tea prices: Insights into the nature of price volatility - CCP:TE 22/CRS 2 2022
    International tea prices are characterized by relatively elevated volatility, which constitutes a major challenge for producers and other market operators. The objective of this document is to identify and examine the nature, extent and implications of volatile tea prices, highlighting possible policy actions. We identify four major sources of price movements based on economic literature and the specific nature of the tea market. These are: 1) global economic activity, as a proxy for shifts in aggregate demand; 2) changes in net supply of tea, to account for tea-specific demand and supply shocks; 3) the value of the United States of America dollar (USD) with respect to that of other major international currencies; and 4) oil prices, as a proxy for energy costs. The applied empirical framework splits the effects of these four factors and estimates the extent of their contribution in explaining tea price booms and busts. Results indicate that the bulk of the price movements in the tea market is attributed to shocks that are specific to the sector, that is changes in the fundamentals of tea demand and supply. It should be noted, however, that the impact of the economic activity on tea prices was greatest in the first three months of 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns and global economic downturn. Clearly, an effective way to reduce volatility is to bring about a permanently improved balance between supply and demand.

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