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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #10, 9 December 2021

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends












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    International prices of wheat and maize fell in November, both influenced by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Greater export competition and low demand for supplies from the United States of America contributed to the fall in wheat prices, while in the same country, improved logistics and higher seasonal availability also helped ease maize prices. By contrast, international rice prices moved up by another 2.3 percent in November, influenced by currency appreciations against the United States dollar in some Asian suppliers and good buying interest. According to FAO’s most recent analysis, domestic staple food prices sustained their year-on-year higher levels in November. In some regions, seasonal harvests and domestic policy interventions in favour of critical food and input markets abated the pressure on prices. Price transmission from global food and energy markets, amid widespread currency depreciation, continues to reinforce the upward trend of domestic prices and is expected to push the 2022 food import bills to record levels in many countries. Adverse weather events and market disruptions from conflict and civil unrest are other contributory factors to tight supply conditions and elevated domestic staple food prices.
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    International prices of all major cereals increased month on month in October. Wheat prices led the increase, with prices of rice, barley and maize being also firmer. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in October and were generally higher than one year earlier, with exceptionally high levels still prevailing in the Sudan and South Sudan. Prices were well above their year-earlier levels also in Uganda and Somalia, due to reduced availabilities, and in Ethiopia, mainly due to macro-economic difficulties and conflict‑related trade disruptions in some areas. In West Africa, prices of coarse grains decreased seasonally in October for the second consecutive month. However, prices were still significantly above their year-earlier values across the subregion, particularly in central Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, where increased conflicts continued to disrupt agricultural livelihoods, trade and markets.
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    After edging down for the past three months, international prices of wheat firmed marginally in February, mostly reflecting strong demand and concerns over dry weather conditions in some major exporters. World maize prices were nearly unchanged in February, with mixed price trends among the major exporters. International rice prices eased in February, amid exchange rate movements and a slowdown in trading activities in most major Asian exporters. Latest analysis by FAO shows that domestic staple food prices generally remained at elevated levels in February 2023. Seasonal factors and price transmission from the recent weakening of international grain prices supported month‑on‑month declines in some staple food prices in parts of East Asia, South America, Southern Africa and West Africa. Nonetheless, in many countries, conflict, adverse weather events and macroeconomic challenges, particularly currency weakness, continue to drive up local prices.

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