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Rice Market Monitor - September 2003











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    Rice Market Monitor - November 2003 2003
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    Despite a recent deterioration of prospects for global paddy production this season, a recovery from the 2002 low levels continues to be foreseen, with 2003 global paddy production now forecast to grow by 3 percent to 591 million tonnes. Much of the year-to-year increase would be on account of India, where production is forecast to rise by 18 percent. Sizeable production gains are anticipated in several other Asian countries, in particular Bangladesh, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Myanma r, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Those increases will more than offset an expected contraction in China, Japan and the Rep. of Korea.
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    Rice Market Monitor - June 2005 2005
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    According to the FAO second forecast, global paddy production in the current 2005 season could increase by 2.7 percent to 621 million tonnes, or 16 million tonnes more than in 2004, as most countries are expected to react to the rise in prices witnessed in 2004 by expanding cultivation. The current prospects are almost 7 million tonnes above the preceding FAO forecast, reflecting improved expectations for production in Brazil, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Thailand.  Much of the expansion foreseen in 2005 is likely to be concentrated in Asia, with mainland China forecast to boost production by 6 million tonnes compared to last year, with large additions also coming from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, the outlook is less buoyant for Indonesia, Japan and Viet Nam, which might experience a contraction. In recent months, the news that China had started cultivating genetically modified (GM) rice on a commercial basis gained the headlines. H owever, it is not clear whether the Government has formally authorized the release on the market of the GM rice seeds, which would set an important precedent, especially in relation with a food crop.
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    Rice Market Monitor - June 2006 2006
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    FAO has revised upwards by 3 million tonnes its forecast for global paddy production in 2006, which now stands at 637 million tonnes, only 1.0 percent more than in 2005. Such a sluggish growth is imputable to a general rise in production, processing and marketing costs, but also reflects expectations that growing conditions in the current season might not be as favourable as in 2005. Asian countries are now expected to gather 577 million tonnes in 2006, 4 million tonnes more than previously fo recast and 7.5 million tonnes larger than last year. Much of the increase would reflect progress in Bangladesh, China and Viet Nam and, to a smaller extent, in Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand. Crop prospects continue to be negative in Japan, the Republic of Korea and Sri Lanka and, now, also in Pakistan.

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