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Book (series)An assessment of the impact of higher yields for maize, soybean and cassava in Indonesia: A multi-market model approach 2007
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No results found.The changing structure of food demand will generate pressure to diversify away from cereals. It is therefore important that cereal productivity increases be maintained to free land as well as to meet the rising demand for animal feed. This study uses a multi-market model to assess the impact of yield increases for maize, soybean and cassava on cropping patterns, prices, incomes, and other variables of interest to policy makers. Raising maize yield reduces imports and has small but positive side- effects in terms of output and consumption of other commodities and in terms of household’s welfare. Raising maize yields and then removing rice tariffs adds a large increase in soybean output and rice imports to the maize yield increase scenario. The impact on household income is modest with middle and bottom income households more affected – and more so in Java. Livestock production and consumption rise strongly and purchasing power of households is much improved. Raising maize, cassava and so ybean yields stimulates production of these crops and reduces imports in particular of maize and cassava but not of soybeans. Rice imports also fall strongly. Household welfare is positively affected but by little. Combining maize, cassava and soybean yield increases with a rice tariff elimination has a particularly pronounced effect on soybean production. Livestock production and consumption grow strongly. Rice imports fall very sharply as do maize imports. Household incomes generally fall but the effect is small. Purchasing power on the other hand increases significantly. -
DocumentAn Assessment of the Impact of Wheat Market Liberalization in Egypt: A Multi-Market Model Approach 2007
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No results found.Wheat is central to the government of Egypt’s food security policy which is influenced by a concern for overdependence on imports and the need to provide subsidized bread for the poor. This paper uses a multi-market approach to assess the impact of complete wheat market liberalization, an international wheat price increase, the value of strategic stocks and the impact of investment to generate higher yields and lower transaction costs for wheat producers. Results show that wheat market liberaliz ation implies very substantial costs for consumers and producers. The estimated income losses that these groups suffer would appear to be below the current total subsidy costs and hence a cash transfer program would, in principle, be feasible. The results show that wheat price movements impact strongly on the supply and/or demand side in particular of berseem, rice, maize, cotton and livestock which has significant implications for their net imports as well as input use. Results indicate that st rategic stocks can be useful to neutralize the impact of a wheat price spike. Increasing wheat yields and reducing transportation boosts wheat self-sufficiency but does not dampen the impact of removing the wheat subsidy system on household’s welfare. -
Book (stand-alone)An assessment of the impact of increasing wheat self-sufficiency and promoting cash-transfer subsidies for consumers in Egypt: A multi-market model 2006
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No results found.Wheat is central to the government of Egypts food security policy which is based on increasing self-sufficiency in wheat on the one hand and subsidizing bread for consumers on the other hand. This paper uses a multi-market approach to assess the impact of increased self-sufficiency in wheat and a switch to a cash-transfer subsidy on cropping patterns, food consumption, production, input use, and income. The findings show that raising self-sufficiency in wheat would reduce reliance on imports but would also adversely affect other sectors, in particular livestock. At full self-sufficiency in wheat, berseem the main animal feed would nearly vanish, with negative repercussions for livestock production. The simulations also show that a move to a cash transfer subsidy system would improve targeting of the poor and eliminate distortions on the consumption side. Finally, under the current wheat policy an increase in the world price of wheat would intensify the adverse consequences of both self -sufficiency and consumer subsidies at the agricultural sector level and economy wide.
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