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Economic Analysis of supply and demand for food up to 2030

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1089











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    Book (series)
    Mapping supply and demand for animal-source foods to 2030 2011
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    Around 2.6 billion people in the developing world are estimated to have to make a living on less than $2 a day and of these, about 1.4 billion are ‘extremely’ poor; surviving on less than $1.25 a day. Nearly three quarters of the extremely poor – that is around 1 billion people – live in rural areas and, despite growing urbanization, more than half of the ‘dollar-poor’ will reside in rural areas until about 2035. Most rural households depend on agriculture as part of their livelihood and livesto ck commonly form an integral part of their production system. On the other hand, to a large extent driven by increasing per capita incomes, the livestock sector has become one of the fastest developing agricultural sub-sectors, exerting substantial pressure on natural resources as well as on traditional production (and marketing) practices. In the face of these opposing forces, guiding livestock sector development on a pathway that balances the interests of low and high income households and regions as well as the interest of current and future generations poses a tremendous challenge to policymakers and development practioners. Furthermore, technologies are rapidly changing while at the same time countries are engaging in institutional ‘experiments’ through planned and un-planned restructuring of their livestock and related industries, making it difficult for anyone to keep abreast with current realities. This ‘Working Paper’ Series pulls together into a single series different strands of work on the wide range of topics covered by the Animal Production and Health Division with the aim of providing ‘fresh’ information on developments in various regions of the globe, some of which is hoped may contribute to foster sustainable and equitable livestock sector development. In 2006 the FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit revised their estimates of prospective developments in food demand and consumption to 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006b). In this paper we take the estimates of supp ly and demand for animal-source foods and disaggregate them spatially for the years 2000 and 2030. By so doing we are able to present detailed maps and tables of change in supply and demand that are of direct use to researchers and decision makers in the livestock sector.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps 2017
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    A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional (about 40 country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indic ate that: (i) if fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection); (iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated b y the trend growth of world aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth (or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of 28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early 2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and 45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish deman d-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by population and income growth; e xcess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply gap). Results gen erated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking, development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    Economic analysis of supply and demand for fish, fishery products and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2022 – special focus on fish and fishery products. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1101. 2016
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    This circular analyses and forecasts future demand for and supply of food in sub-Saharan Africa, with a special focus on fish and fishery products. Eleven countries in the region were selected for in-depth analysis: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. With the population of sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 949 million in 2015 to reach 1.2 bil lion by 2025, food production systems will be placed under growing pressure in an already difficult setting of rising urbanization and environmental degradation. Various population dynamics in the region will have a number of nuanced effects on the future demand for food. With the rate of population growth in 2022 expected to be outpace increased production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture, it is forecast that the region will be less self-sufficient in terms of food production than co mpared with the current situation, as well as compared with other regions of the world. Despite these findings, the overall increase in per capita income will also affect food demand and potentially improve nutrition for some.

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