Since the concept of the nutrition transition was first developed, a vast body of research on the evolution of dietary patterns across developed and developing economies has validated its salient characteristics. In parallel, a tendency for dietary patterns to converge globally was observed.49 As developing countries underwent structural transformation and experienced economic growth, dietary patterns tended to resemble those of consumers in developed countries with a declining consumption of staple foods and an increased consumption of animal source foods, fats and oils, and sweets and beverages.
The convergence of dietary patterns across countries can be attributed to trends in income growth, urbanization, the development of the food retail and processing sectors and trade openness, all of which drive the nutrition transition in each nation and are, to a considerable degree, connected.50 Experts focussing on various aspects of globalization suggest that, in addition to trade and foreign direct investment, global food advertising also plays an important role in promoting and accelerating this convergence.51
Most of the research on globalized dietary patterns occurred in the early 2000s, before the level of food prices increased globally. At that time, the expansion in the availability of cheap vegetable oils, through increases in production and trade, was considered as central in the early stages of the nutrition transition in developing countries and a harbinger of the convergence process in dietary patterns worldwide.52, 53 The analyses carried out show a global convergence of dietary patterns in line with the nutrition transition, with the share of staple foods in total calories available for consumption declining and the share of animal source foods, fats and oils and sweets and beverages increasing across all countries.
There are few formal statistical analyses on the convergence of dietary patterns. A study using a sample of 172 countries during the 1993–2013 period, rejected the hypothesis that dietary patterns across all countries converge towards a representative high-income country dietary pattern. This pattern was composed of animal source foods, vegetable oils and fats and sweeteners that made up 68 percent of total calories available for consumption.54
Nevertheless, although dietary patterns observed in multiple countries have been found to move together, driven by interrelated trends in income growth, globalization and urbanization, there is still significant heterogeneity in their nutrition transition trends. This heterogeneity may be due to several factors, including significantly different rates of economic growth, foreign investment and urbanization, diverse degrees of trade openness, differences in consumer preferences for food, and varying demographic trends.
As countries are at different stages of the nutrition transition, examining whether convergence occurs within different country groups, rather than globally, would consider the heterogeneity of the shift in dietary patterns.
An econometric analysis carried out for this report draws from the economic growth convergence literature and applies a modelling methodology that allows for examining a range of nutrition transition trends. This includes testing for convergence to a common global dietary pattern but also for various transition paths that reflect varying convergence speeds for different country groups, and even divergence from the global average.k, 55 The research uses FAO food balance sheet data from 1961 to 2019 to test for global convergence in the share of staple foods and the share of animal source foods in total calories available for consumption – both of which are well-identified features of the nutrition transition. In addition, the study tests for global convergence in the aggregate share of animal source foods, fats and oils, and sweets and beverages in total calories available for consumption to assess whether countries converge to a pattern similar to that of a high-income country.l
In all cases, the data rejects the idea of global convergence, indicating that the nutrition transition trends vary across countries. While the dietary patterns are not globalized, the analysis identified two groups within which the dietary patterns of countries tend to converge. One group is predominantly composed of high-income countries but also some upper- and lower-middle-income countries (group 1), while the other is made up of most of the low- and lower-middle-income countries (group 2).
Group 1 is characterized by low and decreasing shares of staple foods, high and increasing shares of animal source foods and a higher aggregate share of animal source foods, fats and oils, and sweets and beverages in total calories available for consumption (Figure 1.8 to Figure 1.10). In this group, the dietary patterns of countries converge among themselves and towards the global average share. Countries in group 2, on average, are shown to have a significantly higher share of staple foods and a lower aggregate share of animal source foods, fats and oils, and sweets and beverages, following the global average at a slower rate.
FIGURE 1.8Convergence in the share of staple foods in total calories available for consumption, 1961–2020
SOURCE: Authors’ own elaboration based on Kozłowska, M.K. (forthcoming). Pathways to nutrition transition and the globalization of dietary patterns – Technical note for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2024. Rome, FAO.
FIGURE 1.9Convergence in the share of animal source foods in total calories available for consumption, 1961–2020
SOURCES: Authors’ own elaboration based on Kozłowska, M.K. (forthcoming). Pathways to nutrition transition and the globalization of dietary patterns – Technical note for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2024. Rome, FAO.
FIGURE 1.10Convergence in the aggregate share of animal source foods, fats and oils, sweets and beverages in total calories available for consumption, 1961–2020
Refer to the disclaimer on the copyright page for the names and boundaries used in this map. Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined.
SOURCES: Authors’ own elaboration based on Kozłowska, M.K. (forthcoming). Pathways to nutrition transition and the globalization of dietary patterns – Technical note for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2024. Rome, FAO.
The difference in the speed of convergence between the two country groups, one being composed of mostly high- and upper-middle-income countries, while the other of lower-income countries, suggests that, on average, income is the main driver of the evolution of the nutrition transition. However, other important factors such as consumer preferences can play a role in shaping nutrition transition trends for each country and in determining the position of a country in one convergence group or another. Additional analysis of the factors that affect the membership of a country in one group or another suggests that trends in GDP per capita, globalization and trade openness shape, on average, the nutrition transition trends across countries and their convergence rates.
