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The future of food and agriculture Drivers and triggers for transformation

Acknowledgments

This report, The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation, is the ultimate output of the Corporate Strategic Foresight Exercise (CSFE), a long-term, forward-looking effort carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) over the last two years, aimed at strengthening the strategic thinking of the Organization and the whole development community, so as to move agrifood systems towards sustainability and resilience.

Overall process. Contributions to the CSFE were provided by several hundreds of FAO staff during meetings, workshops, discussions and interviews, under the overall guidance of Máximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist; with the support of Beth Crawford, Director of the Office of Strategy, Programme and Budget (OSP), FAO; and the technical and organizational leadership of Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, Senior Economist, Agrifood Economics Division (ESA), FAO. This allowed for the identification of 18 drivers of future agrifood systems and key triggers of transformation that fed into the preparation of the FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31. Drivers and triggers identified during the CSFE constitute the conceptual backbone of this corporate report. Based on these findings, most technical divisions of FAO provided technical background papers, and the contents of these enabled the preparation of the first chapter of this report, as specified in more detail below. All these inputs are gratefully acknowledged. The second and third chapters of this report further elaborate on CSFE’s findings.

The preparation of this report, as much as the whole CSFE, was coordinated by the Foresight Management Team, comprising: Tomoyuki Uno, Senior Strategy and Planning Officer; Helene Sow and Ahmed Jilani, Strategy and Planning Officers, Office of Strategy, Programme and Budget (OSP); Ayca Donmez, former Statistician, Office of the Chief Statistician (OCS); Vittorio Fattori, Cornelia Boesch and Kosuke Shiraishi, Food Safety Officers, Food Systems and Food Safety Division (ESF); Pedro Morais de Sousa, Political Economist (ESA); and Lan Huong Nguyen, Economist (ESA).

Drafting of the report. This report was written by a drafting team comprising: Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, Lead Author; Materne Maetz, Senior Editorial Advisor and former FAO Senior Policy Officer; and Pedro Morais de Sousa. Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù conceived and outlined the structure of the whole report, wrote the introduction and the introductory parts of all the sections in Chapter 1, provided substantive inputs to Sections 1.2 and 1.3, drafted Chapters 2 and 3, and revised the final draft of the whole report by providing additional text and boxes, while incorporating subsequent comments received from reviewers. Materne Maetz, in addition to advising on the structure and logical sequence of the whole report, harmonized, complemented and integrated the contributions received from technical divisions on drivers of agrifood systems, drafted substantial parts of Sections 1.8, 1.12, 1.14 and 1.16, and organized the whole set of references for Chapter 1. Pedro Morais de Sousa, in addition to coordinating the inputs from the technical divisions during the various phases of revisions, supported Materne Maetz in revising selected sections in Chapter 1, provided important inputs in Sections 1.5, 1.7 and 1.10, preliminary drafts for the introduction, parts of Chapters 2 and 3, and drafted parts of the concluding remarks.

Data gathering and analysis. Graphs and numerical tables have been prepared by the data analysis team, coordinated by Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù. The team comprises Lan Huong Nguyen; Isabel Parras, Data and Policy Analyst; Jacopo Di Iorio, Chiara Ghiringhelli and Anja Peebles-Brown, Data Analysts; as well as the former FAO Consultant Dominik Wisser, now FAO Livestock Policy Officer in the Animal Production and Health Division (NSA). The data analysis team has also prepared the web-based dashboard that renders all the data used in this report available in an interactive way.

Colleagues in the Statistics Division (ESS) provided precious support in gathering relevant information. The contributions of José Rosero Moncayo and Piero Conforti, Director and Deputy Director of ESS, respectively; Carlo Cafiero, Project Manager; Firas Yassin, Statistician; Michele Vollaro, Statistician and Economist; Anne Pauline Biolley, Statistical Clerk; and Eun Jeong Lee, Statistician, are duly acknowledged.

Support and advice on preparing maps was provided by Nelson Rosas Ribeiro Filho, Geospatial Analysis Team Leader; Patrizia Monteduro, Geospatial data and Meta-data Consultant, Digitalization and Informatics Division (CSI); Valentina Conti, Economist (ESA); and Stefania Vannuccini, Senior Fishery Officer (NFI).

Publication process. Daniela Verona, Publishing Coordinator (ESA), supported the whole publication process by preparing preliminary master documents, laying out the entire document, and coordinating the editing and graphical services provided by Anna Farkas, Copy-Editor, Martha Bonilla, Publishing Coordinator (OCC) Dianne Berest, Copy-Editor; and Gabriele Zanolli, graphic designer. The support from Yongdong Fu, Editorial Project Officer, Office of Communications (OCC), in smoothing the Organization of the editorial work is also acknowledged.

Anna Doria Antonazzo, former Administrative Assistant; and Patrizia Belotti, Administrative Assistant (ESA) provided administrative support to the whole CSFE and to the preparation of this report.

Internal expert consultation. The 18 drivers and the key triggers for transformation, which constitute the conceptual backbone of this report, were identified through an Internal Expert Consultation (IEC) held at the early stages of the CSFE process. The IEC and the subsequent phases of the CSFE gathered the contributions from the following FAO Senior Experts: Maya Takagi, Regional Programme Leader of the FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean (RLC); Ignacio Moncayo, Expert in Rural Development (RLC); Pablo Rasmussen, Advisor to the Regional and Subregional coordination (RLC); Raimund Jehle, FAO Regional Programme Leader for the FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia (REU); Erzsebet Illes, National Professional Officer (REU); Jean Marc Faures, Regional Programme Leader in the FAO Regional Office for Near East and North Africa (RNE); Rachid Serraj, Senior Agricultural Officer (RNE); David Dawe, Senior Economist in the FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (RAP); Ade Freeman, Regional Programme Leader in the FAO Regional Office for Africa (RAF); Pablo Rabczuk, Agrifood Systems Officer in the Subregional Office for Mesoamerica (SLM); Ruben Flores Agreda, FAO Representative in Uruguay; Roberto Sandoval, Emergency Focal Point and Disaster Risk Management Specialist in the Subregional Office for the Caribbean (SLC); Xiangjun Yao, Representative in the Subregional Office for the Pacific Islands (SAP); Madankumar Janakiraman, Programme Officer (SAP); Sumiter Broca, Senior Policy Officer in the Subregional Office for Central Asia (SEC); Suffyan Koroma, Senior Policy Officer in the Subregional Office for Eastern Africa (SFE); Adama Taoko, Policy Officer (SFE); Lewis Hove, Resilience Team Leader in the Subregional Office for Southern Africa (SFS); Eugene Rurangwa, Land and Water Officer in the Subregional Office for West Africa (SFW); Mohamed Amrani, Senior Policy Officer in the Subregional Office for North Africa (SNE); Armen Sedrakyan, Economist in the Subregional Office for the Gulf Cooperation Council States and Yemen (SNG); Dunja Dujanovic, Senior Emergency and Rehabilitation Officer in the Office of Emergencies and Resilience (OER); Sasha Koo-Oshima, Deputy Director of the Land and Water Division (NSL); Erdgin Mane, Policy Officer in the Inclusive Rural Transformation and Gender Equality Division (ESP); Farid El Haffar, Technical Officer, Joint FAO/WHO Centre (CODEX Food Standards and Zoonotic Diseases, CJW); Driss Haboudane, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre (Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, CJN); Jose Valls Bedeau, Policy Officer (ESF); Holger Matthey, Senior Economist in the Markets and Trade Division (EST); Shukri Ahmed, Deputy Director (OER); James Tefft, Senior Economist in the FAO Investment Centre (CFI); Manuel Barange, Director of Fisheries and Aquaculture Division (NFI), Chikelu Mba, Senior Officer in Plant Production and Protection Division (NSP); Mona Chaya, Senior Advisor in the Office of the Chief Scientist (DDCC); Eduardo Mansur, Director of Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment (OCB); Daniela Kalikoski, Fishery Industry Officer (NFI); Guenter Hemrich, Senior Strategy and Planning Officer (OSP); Henning Steinfeld, Coordinator (NSA); Selvaraju Ramasamy, Senior Agricultural Officer in the Office of Innovation (OIN); Karel Callens, Senior Adviser in the Governance Unit (DDCG); Mette Wilkie, former Director of Forestry Division (NFO); Arni Mathiesen, former Assistant Director-General; Frederic Castell, Senior Natural Resources Officer (OCB); Nancy Aburto, Deputy Director of Food and Nutrition Division (ESN); Margret Vidar, Legal Officer in the Legal Office (LEG); Blaise Kuemlangan, Chief (LEG); Jose Rosero Moncayo; Ewald Rametsteiner, Deputy Director (NFO); Elena Aguayo, Indigenous Women Coordination and Monitoring Support Consultant in the Partnership and UN collaboration Division (PSU); Anne Brunel, Coordinator, Global-Hub on Indigenous Peoples’ Food Systems (PSU); Florian Doerr, Programme Manager and Resource Mobilization Specialist (PSU); Mariana Estrada, Programme Manager and Indigenous Women’s Knowledge Specialist (PSU); Yon Fernández-de-Larrinoa, Head, Indigenous Peoples Unit (PSU); Kundan Kumar, Indigenous Peoples’ Resources and Climate Change (PSU); Maria Paola Rizzo, Land Tenure Specialist (ESP); Mikaila Way, Indigenous Peoples’ Liaison for North America in the Liaison Office for North America (FAOLOW), Merelyn ValdiviaDiaz, Young Professional Officer (PSU).

The IEC and the subsequent phases of the CSFE also benefited from the contributions of several colleagues in decentralized offices, comprising: Jongjin Kim, Assistant Director-General and FAO Regional Representative (RAP); Vladimir Rakhmanin, Assistant Director-General and FAO Regional Representative (REU); Ade Freeman, Sumiter Broca; David Dawe; Xiangjun Yao; Madankumar Janakiraman; Cheng Fang, Economist (REU); Viorel Gutu, Subregional Coordinator (SEC); Goran Stavrik, Senior Field Programme Officer (REU).

Suggestions on how to organize the staff surveys were provided by Pietro Gennari, Chief Statistician (OCS).

Technical background papers. The various sections of Chapter 1 draw upon several technical background papers prepared by many authors, who provided critical analytical insights and the necessary technical depth required by the different topics addressed. They comprise:

  • Population dynamics and urbanization (Driver 1). Main contributors: Kostas Stamoulis, Senior Advisor (ESP). Other contributors: Cecilia Marocchino, Urban Food Agenda Coordinator (ESF); Ahmed Raza, Nutrition and Food Systems Officer (ESN); Pilar Santacoloma, Agrifood Systems Officer (ESN); Libor Stloukal, Policy Officer (ESP); and Lourdes Marie Orlando, Territorial development and food systems consultant (ESP).
  • Economic growth, structural transformation and macroeconomic stability (Driver 2). Main contributors: Eric Kemp-Benedict, Equitable Transitions Program Director at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).
  • Cross-country interdependencies (Driver 3). Main contributors: Eric Kemp-Benedict (SEI).
  • Big data (Driver 4). Main contributors: Nikola Trendov, Digital Agriculture and Innovation Specialist (OIN); Erik Van Ingen, Digital Agriculture and Innovation Specialist (OIN). Other contributors: Paul Whimpenny, Senior Information Technology Officer (CSI), Thembani Malapela, Information Manager Officer (OIN); and Sergio Bogazzi, Information Technology Officer (CSI).
  • Geopolitical instability and increasing impact of conflicts (Driver 5). Main contributors: Julius Jackson, Technical Officer (OER).
  • Risks and uncertainties (Driver 6). Main contributors: Sylvie Wabbes Candotti, Emergency and Rehabilitation Officer (OER); Antoine Libert, Climate Resilience Expert (OER); Rebeca Koloffon, Operations Specialist (OER); Roman Malec, Climate Resilience Consultant (OER). Other contributors: Rein Paulsen, Director (OER); Shukri Ahmed; and Dervla Cleary, Emergency and Rehabilitation Officer (OER).
  • Rural and urban poverty and inequalities (Drivers 7 and 8). Main contributors: Ana Paula de la O Campos, Economist (ESA), and Lorenzo Moncada, Economist (ESA). Other contributors: Gala Dahlet, Senior Policy Officer (ESP); Leopoldo Tornarolli, former Economist (ESA); Erdgin Mane. Technical inputs in this section on future projections of global inequality were also provided by Dominique van Der Mensbrugghe, Director, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, United States of America.
  • Innovation and science (Driver 10). Main contributors: Preetmoninder Lidder, Technical Adviser (DDCC) and Mona Chaya.
  • Investment in agrifood systems (Driver 11). Main contributors: James Tefft; Meeta Punjabi, Economist (CFI); and Atisha Kumar, Economist (CFI).
  • Capital and information intensity of production (Driver 12). Main contributors: Eric Kemp-Benedict and Kevin M Adams, Research Fellow (SEI).
  • Consumption and nutrition patterns (Driver 14). Main contributors: Fatima Hachem, Senior Nutrition Officer (ESN); Melissa Vargas, Technical Adviser (ESN); and Yenory Hernandez, Nutrition Specialist (ESN).
  • Epidemics and degradation of ecosystems (Driver 16). Main contributors: Claudia Pittiglio, Disease Ecology and Risk Modelling expert (NSA); Sheila Wertz, Senior Forestry Officer (RAP); Jeffrey Lejeune, Food Safety Officer (ESF); Madhur Dhingra, Senior Animal Health Officer (NSA); and Keith Sumption, Chief (CJW). Other contributors: Buyung Hadi, Agricultural Officer (NSP); Baogen Gu, Senior Agricultural Officer (NSP); Shoki Al Dobai, Senior Agricultural Officer (NSP); Alejandro Dorado García, Animal Health Officer (CJW); Shiroma Sathyapala, Forestry Officer (NFO); Kristina Rodina, Forestry Officer (NFO); Vittorio Fattori; Cornelia Boesch; Martin Heilmann, Veterinary Public Health Specialist (NSA); Sophie Von Dobschuetz, Animal Health Officer (NSA); Timothy Robinson, Senior Livestock Policy Officer (NSA); and Badi Besbes, Senior Animal Production Officer (NSA).
  • Climate change (Driver 17). Main contributors: Zitouni Ould-Dada, Deputy Director (OCB), and Liva Kaugure, Natural Resources Officer (OCB).
  • Sustainable ocean economies (Driver 18). Main contributors: Carlos Fuentevilla, Fishery Officer (NFI); Anders Brudevoll, Associate Professional Officer (NFI); Other contributors: Manuel Barange; Vera Agostini, Deputy Director (NFI); and Stefania Vannuccini.

In addition, Chapters 2 and 3 benefited from contributions provided by Dubravka Bojic, Programme Officer (DDCG), on institutions and governance. All these contributors are gratefully acknowledged.

Narratives of alternative future scenarios. The narratives of alternative scenarios for the future of agrifood systems and related strategic policy options, presented in Chapters 2 and 3, respectively, benefited from the findings of an External Expert Consultation run in November 2021, in collaboration with the UN Foresight Network and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Futures Literacy team. The commitment and contributions of Riel Miller, former coordinator of the UN network and Head of the Futures Literacy Team; Irianna Lianaki-Dedouli, UNESCO Futures Literacy team; and Roumiana Gotseva, futures literacy expert and ESA consultant, are very much appreciated and acknowledged. Materials to develop alternative futures were also provided by Merle Remy, working on the project SHAPE (Sustainable development pathways achieving Human well-being while safeguarding the climate And Planet Earth) at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany).

Communication strategy. Last, but not least, contributions to the communication strategy of this report, coordinated by Pedro Morais de Sousa (ESA), have been provided by Sreya Banerjee, Communication Consultant (OCC) and Kimberly Sullivan, Publications Officer (OCC).