Concluding remarks
Transformative processes will most certainly require long-term commitment, persistency and perseverance. Acceptance of long-termism by citizens and their governments is required, meaning transformative action needs to start now. Whether that will happen or not, will determine one of the possible futures of agrifood systems. The factors that influence the decisions of citizens and governments regarding the future of agrifood systems are multiple, including the urgency to satisfy immediate needs, ethical and cultural values, the social contexts within which decisions will be made, as well as current and future political, economic, social, cultural and military power structures. Stakeholders interested in transforming agrifood systems along sustainability and resilience patterns will have to increase their awareness, enlarge their agency space and “outsmart” political economy constraints that have thus far prevented the move towards the targets of Agenda 2030.
Sustainably nourishing close to 10 billion people by 2050, while preserving natural resources and increasing the resilience of agrifood systems to the inevitable shocks and “unknown unknowns” that will materialize along the way, is an unprecedented challenge. It requires addressing the trade-offs that have been highlighted in this report. All of them deserve further analyses through a holistic approach for guiding contextualized actions. However, for some of them, win-win solutions are not possible, as highlighted in the scenario “trading off for sustainability”. For others, win-win solutions may not even be currently imaginable, given the boundaries of the planetary resources available. The readiness to give up something today, particularly by better-off citizens and more powerful actors, to the advantage of others and of future generations, might end up being the only option to ensure sustainable and resilient agrifood systems that positively contribute to intra- and intergenerational equity.
This corporate strategic foresight report forces one to strategically prepare for different outlooks, including those considered more pessimistic. It has been said: “I feel very optimistic about the future of pessimism.”8 This sentence could be interpreted in different ways. Of course, it could also support a pessimistic view of the future. Indeed, given that trends and human behaviour have not changed significantly despite many warnings, inconvenient truths, recommendations, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and SDGs, assuming that paths will not change for the better would be a fairly safe bet.
Most human beings desire improved lifestyles and well-being, more real income, a fulfilling income-generating occupation, a better house, a better mode of transportation, travel, to eat at the best restaurants, enjoy improved public services, top-quality health care facilities and education facilities, sophisticated services, and solid and durable infrastructures.
Understandably, most humans desire all of this at the lowest price possible. This is true for humans in both HICs and LMICs. These aspirations and lifestyles come at a cost as they require substantial resources, which are being exhausted at a fast pace. Even when confronted with this reality, most humans would not give up on pursuing their dreams and aspirations. Plus, there would be a fear of free-riding from others who would not comply with a potential pact. Therefore, most citizens and their governments might not activate triggers nor deal with tough trade-offs. Technological advancements eventually might not be capable of solving the problem.
Ultimately, a strategic foresight report has also to convey unfortunate, but plausible, scenarios such as a “more of the same” or even or worse. But, as highlighted in the foreword of this report, one could also recall, that “…my mind is pessimistic, but my will is optimistic. Whatever the situation, I imagine the worst that could happen in order to summon up all my reserves and will power to overcome every obstacle.”9
The story of mankind should be one of gradually learning as much as possible from the past in order to avoid repeating crises, and to dare to imagine – and push for – an “impossible” improved future. Hopefully, this strategic foresight report is a contribution in this direction.