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Rice Market Monitor - March 2007

Year of publication 2007

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 27 p.

Author FAO;

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Newsletter

Series title Rice Market Monitor

Series number Vol. X No. 1

Synopsis (short abstract) Estimates of world paddy production in 2006 have been cut by 2 million tonnes since December 2006, to 629 million tonnes. At that level, the 2006 paddy season, just concluded, would yield 4 million tonnes less than the record achieved in 2005. Much of the contraction is anticipated to reflect smaller crops in Asia, which were negatively affected by an irregular pattern of the monsoons and insect attacks. Production also fell in Latin America and the Caribbean, but rose in Africa for the fifth consecutive year. Results were mixed in the rest of the world.

Language English

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    FAO’s March forecast of global paddy production in 2007 has been raised by 5 million tonnes to 638 million tonnes, which would represent a mere 1 percent increase from 2006. So far into the season, only countries situated in the Southern Hemisphere have harvested their main 2007 crops, the results of which have been rather disappointing.
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    Since the last issue of the Monitor, FAO has upgraded its forecasts of global paddy production in 2006 and 2007. Much of the 2007 revision reflects improved prospects for India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nigeria and the United States, while floods, drought and other setbacks worsened the outlook in China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam.
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    With the bulk of the 2007 season paddy crops already harvested, the FAO forecast of world paddy production in 2007 has been lifted by 2 million tonnes to 645 million tonnes (430 million tonnes in milled rice eq.), which represents a modest increase of 4 million tonnes, or 0.6 percent, from 2006. Virtually all of the year-to-year world expansion is expected to arise in Asia, while contractions are anticipated in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, where crops have been co nstrained by adverse weather often associated with “La Niña” conditions. Production in Asia is now foreseen to expand by about 5 million tonnes to 585 million tonnes, spearheaded by large absolute gains in China, India, Indonesia and Myanmar, but also in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Thailand. By contrast, Bangladesh, Cambodia, DPR of Korea, the Rep. of Korea, Sri Lanka and Turkey are forecast to face a decline. Exceptionally wet conditions pre vailed in large parts of Africa, hindering crops in most locations and causing production in the region to fall to an expected 21.6 million tonnes, slightly below the good 2006 performance. Much of the decline is foreseen to concentrate in Egypt, but also in Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Nigeria. By contrast, Benin, Chad, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Senegal and Tanzania are set to harvest larger crops.
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