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NewsletterRice Market Monitor - June 2005 2005According to the FAO second forecast, global paddy production in the current 2005 season could increase by 2.7 percent to 621 million tonnes, or 16 million tonnes more than in 2004, as most countries are expected to react to the rise in prices witnessed in 2004 by expanding cultivation. The current prospects are almost 7 million tonnes above the preceding FAO forecast, reflecting improved expectations for production in Brazil, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Thailand. Much of the expansion foreseen in 2005 is likely to be concentrated in Asia, with mainland China forecast to boost production by 6 million tonnes compared to last year, with large additions also coming from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, the outlook is less buoyant for Indonesia, Japan and Viet Nam, which might experience a contraction. In recent months, the news that China had started cultivating genetically modified (GM) rice on a commercial basis gained the headlines. H owever, it is not clear whether the Government has formally authorized the release on the market of the GM rice seeds, which would set an important precedent, especially in relation with a food crop.
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NewsletterRice Market Monitor - December 2007 2007With the bulk of the 2007 season paddy crops already harvested, the FAO forecast of world paddy production in 2007 has been lifted by 2 million tonnes to 645 million tonnes (430 million tonnes in milled rice eq.), which represents a modest increase of 4 million tonnes, or 0.6 percent, from 2006. Virtually all of the year-to-year world expansion is expected to arise in Asia, while contractions are anticipated in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, where crops have been co nstrained by adverse weather often associated with “La Niña” conditions. Production in Asia is now foreseen to expand by about 5 million tonnes to 585 million tonnes, spearheaded by large absolute gains in China, India, Indonesia and Myanmar, but also in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Thailand. By contrast, Bangladesh, Cambodia, DPR of Korea, the Rep. of Korea, Sri Lanka and Turkey are forecast to face a decline. Exceptionally wet conditions pre vailed in large parts of Africa, hindering crops in most locations and causing production in the region to fall to an expected 21.6 million tonnes, slightly below the good 2006 performance. Much of the decline is foreseen to concentrate in Egypt, but also in Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Nigeria. By contrast, Benin, Chad, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Senegal and Tanzania are set to harvest larger crops.
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NewsletterRice Market Monitor - March 2005 2005• Following less buoyant assessments of crops in Cambodia, China and Laos, FAO has revised downward its estimate of global paddy production in 2004, which now stands at 605 million tonnes. If confirmed at that level, the 2004 season will end with a 4 percent increase in production compared with 2003, with most of the expansion concentrated in China, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Egypt, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, the United States and the European Union are also estim ated to have harvested larger crops in 2004. By contrast, a number of setbacks, in the form of floods and droughts, impaired the paddy seasons in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, which are all set to experience a contraction. Production in 2004 is also anticipated to fall in Central America, a result of disease problems and drought, but also in Ecuador, Guyana and Peru. Although recovering from the extremely poor outcome in 2003, production in Australia remained well below the levels reached before 2002, when lingering drought problems started affecting the crop.
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