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Recent Practices and Advances for AMIS Crop Yield Forecasting at Farm and Parcel Level: A Review

Year of publication 2017

Pages 68 p.

Author Jacques Delincé

Product type Book (stand-alone)

ISBN 978-92-5-109779-3

Edition 1

Synopsis (short abstract) In most countries, although the proportion of national GDP constituted by the agricultural sector has been declining for decades, the forecasting of food production remains a major challenge for all the economic actors of modern societies. At all levels – government, industry, farm, household – decisions must be taken on the basis of advanced knowledge of the potential influence of economic, biotic and abiotic factors upon crop yields of the major food commodities, especially the four major crop s constituting the priorities of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). The vital character of food commodities, coupled with the limited stocks, largely explains the price volatility observed and the erratic behavior of economic agents in light of the lack of information. In reaction to these phenomena, at the 2011 G20 summit, the ministers of agriculture decided to launch AMIS, an inter-agency platform tasked with enhancing food market transparency and encouraging the coordination of policy action in response to market uncertainty. At the same time, the private sector started to become active. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation invested in the monitoring of agricultural production, by introducing a change in data collection and analyses methods (Global Strategy for improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics) and by supporting technical advances in modelling (the NEXTGEN project) and the use of new technologies (the Spurring a Transformation for Agriculture through Remo te Sensing project, or STARS3). The food industry also began to model food production, aiming to make a joint academic, administration and industry effort for the purpose of Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security.

Language English

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    Timely and reliable agricultural production forecasts are critical to make informed food policy decisions and to enable rapid responses to emerging food shortfalls. Agricultural forecasts are increasingly important in national planning in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to highly variable yield, production and consumption trends, which are in turn occasioned by high climate variability and change, rapidly increasing populations, and limited financial capacity to cope with frequent food insecurity c rises. This review examines the current status of the remote sensing (RS) tools, products, methodologies and data that can help to improve agricultural crop production forecasting systems. The review is structured in three parts: A description of the methodology used for this review; A literature review that covers four core areas, namely: an overview of the application of RS in crop production forecasting; the RS methodologies currently used in crop production forecasting; insight into the avai lable geoportals and RS data and products on crop production forecasting; and an analysis of the national agencies mandated to generate crop production statistics in the three pilot countries of Kenya, Senegal and Zimbabwe; A discussion on the key findings and the conclusions.
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