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The evolution of the global structure of food and agricultural trade: Evidence from network analysis

Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2022










Jafari, Y., Engemann, H. & Zimmermann, A. 2023. The evolution of the global structure of food and agricultural trade: Evidence from network analysis. Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2022. Rome, FAO.




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    Impact of trade policy measures on agricultural markets during global disruptions
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    The past COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe economic consequences worldwide. The global health crisis has affected supply and demand, both domestic and international. However, the shock has been noticeably heterogeneous across sectors. Since the onset of the pandemic, agricultural markets have been resilient compared to other industries, in part due to moderately stable international trade flows. Are export restrictions less determinant than in previous crises? Have countries adopted a more trade-promoting approach compared to the previous food price crisis a decade before? This study evaluates trade policy interventions adopted since the onset of the pandemic, using a gravity setting with data on monthly trade flows. Overall, our findings suggest that government interventions have had a more positive effect on agricultural trade compared to the 2007–2008 crisis. Despite initial and short-lived export restrictions, governments have largely focused on facilitating trade flows. The most significant effect has come from trade-promoting measures and the benefits translated into enhanced trade across all regions. Some of these practices, such as acceptance of digital import documentation, could be established on a permanent basis, while others, like temporary elimination of import quotas, might be considered as efficient interventions for future crises. Products of animal origin were most affected by import restrictions, highlighting the importance of timely and accurate international notification of potential health risks to avoid speculation and market disruptions. Food import-dependent nations remain vulnerable to crises due to their sensitivity to export restrictions, even when temporary. Therefore, keeping a certain level of stock in key staple foods as well as a diversified portfolio of trade partners is imperative to ensure the resilience of domestic food markets.
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    Climate Change, Agricultural Trade and Global Food Security
    The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2018. Background paper
    2018
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    The present research was commissioned as backgroud paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2018. Climate is an essential input to agricultural production. Changes in climate will inevitably have an impact on agricultural productivity, output, farm incomes and prices. Elevated temperatures will also affect human and animal health. To date, most of the studies of climate impacts on agriculture have ignored the impacts on humans and livestock, focusing instead on the consequences for crop production. One of the foremost reasons is that research on crop impacts assessment is the field where the necessary modelling infrastructure was most fully developed. The present paper provides an overview of the latest modelling research on the impact of climate change and agriculture. It specifically focuses on different modelling approaches that include the interlinkages between climate change and trade, and the potential role trade can play to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

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