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ArticlePrediction of wildland-urban interface fires using a digital twin
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.The feasibility of using a digital twin for the prediction of the wildland-urban interface fires was studied. The wildfire ignition and spread were investigated for a cultural site (Lecture Hall of Sosu Confucian Academy in Youngju, South Korea) using the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS). The vegetation and building information were obtained using aerial LiDAR imaging. The ground and aerial photographs validated the captured fuel and building information in terms of their sizes and distributions. The validated fuel and building information were conveyed to a digital twin domain for computational fluid dynamics calculation. A parametric study was performed for various ignition locations, atmospheric conditions (wind speed, direction, humidity), and moisture contents. Based on the prediction results, fuel treatments were suggested to prevent the ignition of the buildings by wildfire. The study showed that using a digital twin could provide a reasonable prediction for the wildfire spread at the wildland-urban interface, and the prediction results could serve as guidelines for wildfire spread prevention activities. The use of a digital twin for wildfire spread prediction will be further investigated for more test sites and fuel conditions. Keywords: Climate change, Research ID: 3617379 -
ArticleEcohydrology-based management as a tool for preventing wildfires in the Mediterranean urban interface area
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.The adaptation to climate change of forest areas with intense anthropic pressure requires innovative management models characterized by an increasingly efficient use of available resources. In Mediterranean areas, the most intense and persistent droughts alter the water relations in the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) continuum and therefore the flammability of the vegetation and the risk of wildfires. The main aim of this work is to present the potential of using detailed information characterizing the SPA for estimating key variables used for forest fire prevention. To this end, physiological, ecohydrological and meteorological measurements (water potential, soil/plant water content, sap flow, etc.) are carried out to model the response of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) to environmental conditions in representative Aleppo pine plots located in a forested area close to Valencia city (Spain). In addition, spectral indexes estimated from Sentinel bands (NDVI, EVI, NDMI, MSI, RGR, BSI and NDWI) are also tested for obtaining the spatio-temporal dynamics of LFMC at the forestscale. The results show the importance of assessing LFMC along the entire hydrological year due to its variation with phenology: minimum values are obtained at the beginning of spring (81.3%, 64mm of soil water content in the profile and 0.2Kpa of VPD) vs. 90.1% during the driest environmental (summer) conditions (18mm of soil water content and 1.9Kpa of VPD). Combining physiological and environmental predictors provides good estimations of LFMC (R 2 >0.70-0.84 in several cases). In addition, RGR, BSI and NDWI indexes are found to be promising predictors of LFMC (R2= 0.7). Efforts such as the one presented here to link a detailed SPA characterization with fire prevention are innovative and emerging, but also necessary when realistic estimations of LFMC dynamics are required. Particularly, our results will serve to improve the forest management of Mediterranean forests, allowing for the precise prediction and identification of forest wildfire behavior and risk thresholds (from surface fire to crown fire), but also the design of optimum irrigation schemes to decrease the risk of crown fires as those with the highest negative impacts. Keywords: live fuel moisture content; ecohydrology; fire weather index; wildland-urban interface; sapflow ID: 3623757 -
ArticleThe change in forest productivity and stand-dynamics under climate change in East Asian temperate forests: A case study from South Korean forests
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.The velocity and impact of climate change on forest appear to be site, environment, and tree species-specific.The primary objective of this research is to assess the changes in productivity of major temperate tree species in South Korea using terrestrial inventory and satellite remote sensing data. The area covered by each tree species was further categorized into either lowland forest (LLF) or high mountain forest (HMF) and investigated. We used the repeated Korean national forest inventory (NFI) data to calculate a stand-level annual increment (SAI). We then compared the SAI, a ground-based productivity measure, to MODIS net primary productivity (NPP) as a measure of productivity based on satellite imagery. In addition, the growth index of each increment core, which eliminated the effect of tree age on radial growth, was derived as an indicator of the variation of productivity by tree species over the past four decades. Based on these steps, we understand the species- and elevation-dependent dynamics. The secondary objective is to predict the forest dynamics under climate change using the Perfect Plasticity Approximation with Simple Biogeochemistry (PPA- SiBGC) model. The PPA-SiBGC is an analytically tractable model of forest dynamics, defined in terms of parameters for individual trees, including allometry, growth, and mortality. We estimated these parameters for the major species by using NFI and increment core data. We predicted forest dynamics using the following time-series metrics: Net ecosystem exchange, aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, C, soil respiration, and relative abundance. We then focus on comparing the impact of climate change on LLF and HMF. The results of our study can be used to develop climate-smart forest management strategies to ensure that both LLF and HMF continue to be resilient and continue to provide a wide range of ecosystem services in the Eastern Asian region. Keywords: mountain forests, lowland forests, increment core, national forest inventory, MODIS NPP ID: 3486900
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