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Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 2 June 2012

Year of publication 2012

Author Trade and Markets Division

Product type Book (stand-alone)

Edition 1

Synopsis (short abstract) The outlook for world cereal production in 2012 improved further in recent weeks largely on expectation of a much bigger maize crop in the United States. World cereal production is now forecast to increase by 3.2 percent to a new record. At 2 419 million tonnes, global cereal production would exceed the anticipated utilization in 2012/13 and lead to a significant replenishment of world stocks, which could keep international prices under downward pressure. Wheat and coarse grains prices ea sed in May, mostly during the second half, driven by good supply prospects. Rice prices were supported by a temporary surge in import demand and large Government purchases in Thailand, the number one exporter of the commodity. Aggregate cereal imports of the 66 LIFDCs for 2012/13 are forecast to decrease slightly, mainly due to the generally favourable prospects for the 2012 domestic harvests. countries. In North Africa, early forecasts point to a sharp decline in cereal production in Morocco as a result of erratic and insufficient rains, while in the remaining countries of the subregion above-average harvests are expected...

Language English

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    As the year draws to a close, FAO’s latest estimate confirms a record high global cereal production in 2011, which should be sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2011/12 and also allow a moderate replenishment of world reserves. n International grain prices remained mostly under downward pressure in November, reflecting the confirmation of a strong recovery in production amid deteriorating world economic prospects and a stronger US dollar. n Based on the estimated increase in import requirements, the cereal import bill of LIFDCs for 2011/12 marketing season is forecast by FAO at a record level...
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    Crop Prospects and Food Situation - no. 4, december 2012 2012
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    Firmer production estimates for 2012 confirm tightening wheat and maize supplies while the outlook for rice remains positive. In spite of a contraction in overall cereal utilization in 2012/13, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline by 2 percentage points from the previous season. International prices of all major cereals, except rice, remain well above last year. For wheat and maize, while prices have stabilized in recent weeks, unfavourable weather for 2013 crops in several important regions is a concern. Aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2012 has been revised upwards following a recovery in Western Africa and increased output in the Far East. Consequently, reduced imports are expected in 2012/13...
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    Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 3 Oct. 2012 2012
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    Latest indications confirm a decline in world cereal production in 2012 from the record in 2011. The decrease will result in a significant reduction in world inventories by the close of seasons in 2013, even with world demand sliding as a result of high prices. International cereal prices remained firm in September, with average wheat and rice quotations increasing slightly, but those of maize declining. Although the volume of aggregate cereal import requirements of LIFDCs in the 2012/13 marketing years are estimated to decline by 5 percent from the high level the previous year, the total import bill, on the other hand, is expected to rise due to higher international prices...
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