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Impact of Policy Measures on Wheat-to-Bread Supply Chain During the Global Commodity Price Peaks

The Case of Serbia






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    Impact of trade policy measures on agricultural markets during global disruptions
    A multicountry analysis
    2024
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    The past COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe economic consequences worldwide. The global health crisis has affected supply and demand, both domestic and international. However, the shock has been noticeably heterogeneous across sectors. Since the onset of the pandemic, agricultural markets have been resilient compared to other industries, in part due to moderately stable international trade flows. Are export restrictions less determinant than in previous crises? Have countries adopted a more trade-promoting approach compared to the previous food price crisis a decade before? This study evaluates trade policy interventions adopted since the onset of the pandemic, using a gravity setting with data on monthly trade flows. Overall, our findings suggest that government interventions have had a more positive effect on agricultural trade compared to the 2007–2008 crisis. Despite initial and short-lived export restrictions, governments have largely focused on facilitating trade flows. The most significant effect has come from trade-promoting measures and the benefits translated into enhanced trade across all regions. Some of these practices, such as acceptance of digital import documentation, could be established on a permanent basis, while others, like temporary elimination of import quotas, might be considered as efficient interventions for future crises. Products of animal origin were most affected by import restrictions, highlighting the importance of timely and accurate international notification of potential health risks to avoid speculation and market disruptions. Food import-dependent nations remain vulnerable to crises due to their sensitivity to export restrictions, even when temporary. Therefore, keeping a certain level of stock in key staple foods as well as a diversified portfolio of trade partners is imperative to ensure the resilience of domestic food markets.
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    Booklet
    Zero deforestation initiatives and their impacts on commodity supply chains 2017
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    Countries and companies alike are entering into commitments to curb deforestation. The 2014 New York Declaration on Forests targets globally halving natural forest loss by 2020 and reaching zero natural forest loss by 2030. It was endorsed by 37 national governments and 53 companies. Despite much early action, it remains yet to be seen whether zero deforestation can create future impact on the ground. Even if companies comply with commitments, large-scale impact may require governments to engage . The downside to the tremendous current momentum around zero deforestation is the risk of awful future disappointment if it fails to deliver progress. For the zero-deforestation movement to succeed, clarity is needed on the zero-deforestation concept and the best way to operationalize pledges. The paper discusses definitions and implications across supply chains and commodities. It highlights the contribution of governments in bringing zero deforestation to scale and safeguarding its benefits.
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