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粮食展望 - 2007年6月











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    粮食展望―2004年12月第4期 2004
    粮农组织估计2004 年世界谷物产量为创记录的20.42 亿吨,较9 月 的预测大幅增加,比2003 年增产8.4%。预测2004/05 年度谷物产量高于利用量,可能使库存量出现五年以 来的首次增加。预测2004/05 年度世界谷物利用量比上一季节增加2.4%。预测到2004/05 年度季末世界谷物库存量将增加至4.41 亿吨。增加 量的大部分为主要出口国的玉米和小麦储备。相反,预计稻米库存量将 再次减少。国际小麦和粗粮价格普遍低于一年前,但稻米价格仍大大高于2003 年的水平。预测2004/05 年度全球谷物贸易量将下降,主要是由于欧盟需求减 少抵消了发展中国家,特别是中国,的预计进口增幅还有余。2004 年年底全球肉类价格略有趋稳,原因是对原疫区的进口解禁和 因此造成的出口供应量的增加。2005 年肉类生产量和贸易量应将继续增 长。 2004 年全年国际奶制品价格趋升,到11 月,粮农组织奶制品价格 指数达1990 年以来的最高水平。价格上涨的压力主要是国际需求增长的 结果,特别是发展中国家对全脂奶粉的需求。在上一销售季节油籽价格达创纪录的水平,但自4 月以来大幅下 跌,主要是由于 美国取得丰收。国际市场食糖价格普遍坚挺,原因是世界食糖消费量相对于产量持 续大幅增加。
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    粮食展望―2004年6月第2期 2004
    Á¸Å©亊éÖ¯?#247;Ô2004ÄêÈ«Çò¹ÈÎï²úÁ¿µÄ亊îÐÂÔ¤²âΪ19.56ÒÚ?#247;Ö£¬亇ÈÉÏÄêÓнÏ丩ó·ù?#247;ȵÄÔö¼Ó¡£ È»?#247;ø£¬¾¡¹ÜÔ¤¼ÆÀûÓÃÁ¿Ôö·ù²»丩󣬵«ÐµÄ2004/05ÏúÊÛ¼¾½Ú¿ÉÄܳöÏÖÈ«Çò¹ÈÎï¿â丩æÁ¿Á¬ÐøµÚÎåÄêÏ»¬µÄ¾ÖÃæ¡£ Á¸Å©亊éÖ¯?#247;Ô2004/05Äê?#247;ÈÈ«Çò¹ÈÎïóÒ亊Á¿µÄÊ亊丩ÎÔ¤²âΪ2.297ÒÚ?#247;Ö£¬亇ÈÉÏÄêϽµ3£\¡£ ÕâÒ»Çé¿öÖ?#8364;ÒªÊÇÓÉÓÚ丩«Í³½ø¿Ú¹úÊÕ³ÉÇ?#8249;¾?#8249;¿丩ºÃ£¬ÒÔ¼?#8249;Å·ÖÞ²úÁ¿µÄ丩ó·ù»ØÉý¡£ÔÚµ¾Ã亊·½Ã棬Ԥ¼ÆÃ³Ò亊Á¿½«Êܵ½Ö?#8364;Òª³ö¿Ú¹ú¹©Ó¦Á¿Ç?#8364;½ôµÄÖÆÔ¼¡£ ...

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