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Sampling and estimation guide for SDG Indicator 2.4.1: Version 1.0















Ferraz, C. 2024. Sampling and estimation guide for SDG Indicator 2.4.1: Version 1.0. FAO Statistics Working Paper Series, No. 24-40. Rome, FAO.



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    This guide describes the estimation process for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator 2.4.1 on agricultural sustainability, considering its subindicators, across different levels of disaggregation within a country. It complements the 2021 Sampling guidance for SDG Indicator 2.4.1 published by FAO. While the former brings useful information concerning a general sampling and estimation perspective, this guide considers the use of dual-frame sampling designs in national agricultural surveys, which combine area frames with list frames. Although the focus is on dual-frame designs, the results described in this guide also apply to situations relevant to countries using agricultural surveys based on single area or list frames. Methodological documents and reports of practical experiences that reflect the realities of various countries, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru, were used as the basis for developing the topics in this guide, as well as for providing examples of the fundamental concepts in this initial version. The paper was commissioned by FAO and prepared by FAO consultant Cristiano Ferraz under the supervision of the FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean regional statistician.
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    As the custodian United Nations (UN) agency of 21 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators, and a member of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) and the Working Group on data disaggregation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has been working to support countries in reporting SDG indicators at the required disaggregation level. To this end, FAO Office of Chief Statistician (OCS) has developed Guidelines on data disaggregation for SDG Indicators using survey data (FAO, 2021), which offer methodological and practical guidance for the production of direct and indirect estimates of SDG indicators having surveys as their main or preferred data source. This technical report presents a case study based on the so-called “projection estimator”, allowing the integration of two independent surveys for the production of synthetic disaggregated estimates. In particular, the publication presents a practical exercise focused on the production of disaggregated estimates for SDG Indicator 2.1.2, on the Prevalence of Moderate or Severe Food Insecurity in the population based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). This application – based on survey microdata from Malawi – expands and enriches the brief practical exercise presented in the Guidelines.
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    This paper presents the experience of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in providing technical assistance to four countries in Latin America – Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Ecuador – to produce small area estimates for three Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators: SDG Indicator 2.1.2, on the prevalence of moderate and severe food insecurity in the population based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES); SDG Indicator 2.3.1, measuring the average value of agricultural production per labour unit; and SDG Indicator 2.3.2, on the average income of small-scale food producers.The paper describes the methodological details and results of the case studies developed, showing how small area estimation can be used to increase the precision of estimates at the subnational level and produce predictions in estimation domains excluded from the sample. It discusses the policy implications of having SDG estimates at the subnational level, and how countries can use this information to formulate programmes and allocate funds. The paper concludes with recommendations on how small area estimation can be incorporated in the processes implemented at the national level to produce agriculture and food security statistics.

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