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Rice Market Monitor - March 2005

Year of publication 2005

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 14 p.

Author FAO

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Newsletter

Series title Rice Market Monitor

Series number Vol. VIII No. 1

Synopsis (short abstract) • Following less buoyant assessments of crops in Cambodia, China and Laos, FAO has revised downward its estimate of global paddy production in 2004, which now stands at 605 million tonnes. If confirmed at that level, the 2004 season will end with a 4 percent increase in production compared with 2003, with most of the expansion concentrated in China, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Egypt, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, the United States and the European Union are also estim ated to have harvested larger crops in 2004. By contrast, a number of setbacks, in the form of floods and droughts, impaired the paddy seasons in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, which are all set to experience a contraction. Production in 2004 is also anticipated to fall in Central America, a result of disease problems and drought, but also in Ecuador, Guyana and Peru. Although recovering from the extremely poor outcome in 2003, production in Australia remained well below the levels reached before 2002, when lingering drought problems started affecting the crop.

Language English

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    There have been a number of revisions to FAO’s forecasts on paddy production in 2005, resulting in much less buoyant prospects for crops this season. The outlook deteriorated especially in the case of China and India, the two major paddy producers, but also of Colombia, Cuba, the Republic of Korea, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, and Venezuela. By contrast, expectations over production in Ecuador, the Philippines, the United States and Viet Nam improved.
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    As production prospects in several of the major rice producing countries have improved substantially compared with the September outlook, the FAO forecast for global paddy production in 2005 has been raised by 7 million tonnes, to 622 million tonnes, which would be 2.6 percent higher than in 2004 ....
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    According to the FAO second forecast, global paddy production in the current 2005 season could increase by 2.7 percent to 621 million tonnes, or 16 million tonnes more than in 2004, as most countries are expected to react to the rise in prices witnessed in 2004 by expanding cultivation. The current prospects are almost 7 million tonnes above the preceding FAO forecast, reflecting improved expectations for production in Brazil, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Thailand.  Much of the expansion foreseen in 2005 is likely to be concentrated in Asia, with mainland China forecast to boost production by 6 million tonnes compared to last year, with large additions also coming from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, the outlook is less buoyant for Indonesia, Japan and Viet Nam, which might experience a contraction. In recent months, the news that China had started cultivating genetically modified (GM) rice on a commercial basis gained the headlines. H owever, it is not clear whether the Government has formally authorized the release on the market of the GM rice seeds, which would set an important precedent, especially in relation with a food crop.
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