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2023-2032年经合组织-粮农组织农业展望

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    经合组织‑粮农组织2024‑2033年农业展望 2024
    《经合组织‑粮农组织2024‑2033年农业展望》包含了对未来十年农产品、渔业和水产养殖市场的共识评估。今年的报告揭示了一些重要趋势。新兴经济体将在全球农业格局中发挥决定性作用,特别是印度,预计将首次超过中国。然而,预计低收入国家的卡路里摄入量仅会增加4%。尽管预计农业温室气体排放强度将有所下降,但农业直接排放可能会增加5%。然而,假设到2030年食品损失和浪费减少一半,这些排放量有可能全球减少4%,而营养不良人口可能达到1.53亿人。国际农业市场的有效运作仍将是全球粮食安全和农村人口生计的关键。考虑到预期的发展,预计在未来十年,国际实际基准价格将会略微下降,前提是没有环境、社会、地缘政治或经济因素引起的重大变化。
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    经合组织‑粮农组织2024‑2033年农业展望
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    2024
    《经合组织‑粮农组织2024‑2033年农业展望》对未来十年全球、区域和国家层面农产品和渔类市场前景进行全面分析。本报告由经济合作与发展组织和联合国粮食及农业组织共同编写,成员国和国际商品机构提供了支持,迄今已持续编撰20年。本报告为政策规划提供参考,特别是在近期全球新冠疫情、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及气候变化影响日益加大的背景下。第20期《展望》回顾了过去二十年全球农业的演变,并预测至2033年。

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    《粮食展望》每年出版2期(6月和11月),聚焦全球食品类商品市场动态。粮农组织最新评估表明,全球食品类商品市场前景相对乐观,除食糖外,所有商品的产量和贸易量均有望增长。然而,由于供需平衡微妙,增长对各商品库存恢复的影响各异。全球食品类商品产量仍易受天气影响。此外,持续的地缘政治紧张局势、政策走向的不确定性、以及潜在的报复性贸易措施,都可能影响贸易前景。除市场综述外,每期还包含专题文章和市场指标。2025年6月刊登载了一篇关于高致病性禽流感的经济和贸易影响的专题文章。其他议题还包括:乌克兰战争爆发后贸易流通的变化、肥料市场最新动态、鱼品欺诈的经济诱因,以及国际海运业脱碳对粮食净进口发展中国家的影响。市场指标概览汇总了期货市场、海运运费、粮食进口费用和食品价格指数的最新动态。
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    In recent years, several major drivers have put the world off track to ending world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. The challenges have grown with the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures. This report presents the first global assessment of food insecurity and malnutrition for 2020 and offers some indication of what hunger might look like by 2030 in a scenario further complicated by the enduring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also includes new estimates of the cost and affordability of healthy diets, which provide an important link between the food security and nutrition indicators and the analysis of their trends. Altogether, the report highlights the need for a deeper reflection on how to better address the global food security and nutrition situation.To understand how hunger and malnutrition have reached these critical levels, this report draws on the analyses of the past four editions, which have produced a vast, evidence-based body of knowledge of the major drivers behind the recent changes in food security and nutrition. These drivers, which are increasing in frequency and intensity, include conflicts, climate variability and extremes, and economic slowdowns and downturns – all exacerbated by the underlying causes of poverty and very high and persistent levels of inequality. In addition, millions of people around the world suffer from food insecurity and different forms of malnutrition because they cannot afford the cost of healthy diets. From a synthesized understanding of this knowledge, updates and additional analyses are generated to create a holistic view of the combined effects of these drivers, both on each other and on food systems, and how they negatively affect food security and nutrition around the world.In turn, the evidence informs an in-depth look at how to move from silo solutions to integrated food systems solutions. In this regard, the report proposes transformative pathways that specifically address the challenges posed by the major drivers, also highlighting the types of policy and investment portfolios required to transform food systems for food security, improved nutrition, and affordable healthy diets for all. The report observes that, while the pandemic has caused major setbacks, there is much to be learned from the vulnerabilities and inequalities it has laid bare. If taken to heart, these new insights and wisdom can help get the world back on track towards the goal of ending hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition in all its forms.
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