Methodology

The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 has been prepared by the Statistics Division (ESS) and the Office of Emergencies and Resilience (OER) of FAO.

Technical inputs were provided by the Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment (OCB), and the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division (NFI), the Forestry Division (NFO), the Animal Production and Health Division (NSA), and the Plant Production and Protection Division (NSP) of the Natural Resources and Sustainable Production stream.

A coordination team consisting of the management of the collaborating divisions and offices of FAO guided the production of the report. This team decided on the outline of the report and defined its thematic focus. Further, it oversaw the technical writing team composed of experts from the collaborating divisions who contributed to the analysis and technical content of the report.

Background technical papers were prepared to support the research and data analysis undertaken for individual sections of the report. The writing team produced several interim outputs, including an annotated outline, first draft and final draft of the report.

These drafts were reviewed and validated by external experts in two workshops held during the preparation process. The final report underwent a rigorous technical review by senior management, technical experts from various divisions and offices of FAO, as well as independent external reviewers. Finally, the report underwent a process of executive clearance at FAO by the heads of the co-publishing divisions, the Chief Economist, the Deputy Director-General in charge of Emergencies and Resilience, and the office of the Director-General.

Required citation:
FAO. 2023. The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 – Avoiding and reducing losses through investment in resilience. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc7900en

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THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS. An average of 12 000 hectares of crops like cotton, corn and walnut were affected by rain and river overflows.

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^a An administrative division, corresponding to a region or province.
^b A measure of heat accumulation used to predict crop development rate.
^c See The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) https://public.emdat.be/
^d “Other” hazard category includes biological, extraterrestrial, and complex hazards. Also, some of the increases in numbers of disasters reflect improvements in data reporting, but much of the rise can be attributed to a greater number of disasters caused by weather and climate related hazards (e.g. flood, drought and extreme temperatures). In contrast, the number of geophysical events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass movements have stayed relatively stable over time. While the overall number of events has levelled off in recent decades, they are projected to increase as atmospheric greenhouse gases continue to accumulate.
^e Previous publications issued in 2015, 2017 and 2021.
^f https://www.emdat.be/
^g https://www.desinventar.net/
^h https://www.gfdrr.org/en/disaster-risk-analytics
ⁱ https://www.ifrc.org/document/world-disasters-report-2022
^j https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/data-explorer.html; https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html
^k See United Nations General Assembly Resolution A/RES/71/276.
^l EM-DAT also includes data on other disasters, which are not considered here. See Technical annex 2 for details.
^m A caveat, developments in reporting mechanisms affect these figures. More events are now reported in EM-DAT, compared to the early 1990s, resulting in a slight reporting bias in the total numbers.
ⁿ It is worth noting that, in this case, the indicator is a ratio of two sets of physical quantities (expressed in tonnes) multiplied by the same price. This means that the ratio captures exclusively a quantity effect. The only function of the price is to aggregate quantities that would otherwise not be comparable.
^o In this case, ratios of losses to counterfactual production are built directly on tonnes, under the hypothesis that quantities produced are homogeneous enough to be aggregated.
^p EAR is the amount needed to meet the requirement of 50 percent of healthy people (per day).
^q Requirements are as follows – Calcium: men and women 800 mg; iron: men 6 mg, women 8.1 mg; zinc: men 9.4 mg, women 6.8 mg; magnesium: men 350 mg, women 265 mg; phosphorus: men and women 580 mg; vitamin A, retinol activity equivalents: men 625 mcg, women 500 mcg; thiamine: men 1.0 mg, women 0.9 mg; riboflavin: men 1.1 mg, women 0.9 mg; vitamin C: men 75 mg, women 60 mg).
^r More granular data, for instance, would make it possible to assess whether losing a given percent of the EAR of a nutrient is a minor loss if that nutrient is in abundant supply in that specific context, or to see if there could be a substantive public health issue if that nutrient is scarce in the local diet.
^s “Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assessment of confidence.” See, IPCC. 2021. Annex VII: Glossary. In: Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger, eds. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou, eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256. www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf
^t The countries selected for inclusion in the study are priority countries in the Global Humanitarian Response Plan for COVID-19 (OCHA, 2020) or the Global Report on Food Crises (WFP, 2020, 2021). These countries are: Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Haiti, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, the Niger, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Togo and Zimbabwe.
^u These countries are: Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Mali, the Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Yemen and Zimbabwe.
^v The countries selected for inclusion in the study are priority countries in the Global Humanitarian Response Plan for COVID-19 (OCHA, 2020) or the Global Report on Food Crises (WFP, 2020, 2021). While past studies were limited in temporal frame and scope, this analysis of cross-country surveys repeated over three years demonstrates the lagged effects of restriction policies on agricultural production.
^w Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Mali, the Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Yemen and Zimbabwe.
^x The confidence interval for all the log-odds ratio coefficients cited in this chapter is 95 percent.
^y See the results from household surveys in 11 countries with high pre-existing levels of food insecurity in FAO. 2021. Agricultural Livelihoods and Food Security in the Context of COVID-19, Cross-country monitoring report. Rome. https://www.fao.org/3/cb4747en/cb4747en.pdf
^z Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania.
^aa The interprovincial pig price spread is measured as the price of live pigs in the province with the highest price minus the same price in the province with the lowest price. All provinces were included, except for Qinghai due to data limitations.
^ab ASF’s impact was assessed through literature reviews and by calculating direct losses and costs of response using the FAO OutCosT tool. OutCosT was piloted to determine retrospectively the cost of ASF outbreaks in Viet Nam’s Lao Cai province (2020) and in the Philippines (2019), including production losses due to the disease, impacts on trade, as well as control and eradication costs, including treatment, surveillance and awareness activities. Generating cost estimates per farm and per pig affected can predict the impact of the disease if it spreads.
^ac In extrapolating, we are assuming that the control policies are practically the same in both periods, the period used to calibrate the tool and the period used to generate the cost estimates.
^ad 208 594 pigs lost due to African swine fever / 545 729 pigs slaughtered lost = 38%.
^ae 38% x 1 804 246 pigs slaughtered lost = 689 637 pigs lost due to African swine fever estimated for 2020.
^af Such as the effect related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
^ag It is important to qualify the word “conflict”. FAO uses the following definition of conflict, recognizing that it does not necessarily need to be armed or violent (for example in FAO. 2022. Operationalizing pathways to sustaining peace in the context of Agenda 2030 – A how-to guide. Rome. Available at https://doi.org/10.4060/cc1021en: “An inevitable aspect of human interaction, conflict is present when two or more individuals or groups pursue mutually incompatible goals. Conflicts can be waged violently, as in a war, or non-violently, as in an election or an adversarial legal process. When channelled constructively into processes of resolution, conflict can be beneficial.”) From Snodderly (Ed.) (2018). Glossary of Terms for Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. Second edition. United States Institute of Peace. Washington D.C. Available at https://www.usip.org/publications/usip-peace-terms-glossary
^ah https://www.prio.org/news/2736
^ai The implementation of Sendai Framework Target E. Note that not all strategies use “armed conflict” and refer solely to “conflict”. The original language used in a strategy is also used here.
^aj Evidence drawn from 21 countries: Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Burundi, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Türkiye and Uganda.
^ak Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (2017).
^al The Government of Ukraine estimated that around 62 000 square miles (160 579 km²) of national territory may be contaminated with landmines and unexploded munitions, including 10 percent of the country’s farmland.
^am FAO. 2019. Disaster risk reduction at farm level: Multiple benefits, no regrets. Rome. www.fao.org/3/ca4429en/CA4429EN.pdf. This study reports evidence on the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Cambodia, Colombia, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Pakistan, the Philippines and Uganda.
^an Although it was not possible to isolate the effects of each element of each intervention in the DRR good practice on banana yields and returns, the synergies among the various interventions likely played a central role in enhancing the resilience of banana farming systems to rainfall deficits and dry spells.
^ao 1) Rice cultivation with line sowing and alternative wet and dry method; 2) wheat cultivation with farmyard manure and compost; 3) vegetable cultivation with ridge sowing, farmyard manure, multicropping and integrated pest management; 4) wheat cultivation with levelling and integrated pest management; 5) cotton cultivation with laser levelling, ridge sowing, integrated pest management and compost application; 6) wheat cultivation with zero-till (drill) sowing and integrated pest management; and 7) cotton cultivation with ridge sowing and integrated pest management.
^ap These include heavy rainfall, drought, high temperature, pests and weed infestations.
^aq Poultry, seed, drum and equipment distributions, cash for work activities, rehabilitation of small-scale irrigation systems, training on productive vegetable techniques as well as the development of women-led cooperative of farmers.
^ar Women farmers cooperatives received a mix of ducks and goats, training was held and a cash for work programme focused on cleaning local water canals that had fallen into disrepair.
^as According to the 2021 IGAD Regional Focus of the Global Report on Food Crisis, 12.6 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification [IPC] Phase 3 or worse)⁴² in Ethiopia (8.6 million), Kenya (1.9 million) and Somalia (2.1 million) during 2020. Given the underlying disaster risk profile of the Horn of Africa, risk-informed action to address hazards of all kinds is imperative to safeguard livelihoods and food security.
^at Sudden onset, large-scale disasters and crises that require a corporate response.
^au This is the stage at which flightless juvenile individuals aggregate into coherent, aligned swarms, which are referred to as hopper bands.
^av See Prevention Web. 2023. Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA). In: Prevention Web. [Cited June 2023]. https://recovery.preventionweb.net/build-back-better/post-disaster-needs-assessments/country-pdnas
^aw See Relief Web. 2023. Reports only. In: Relief Web. [Cited June 2023]. https://reliefweb.int/updates?view=reports
^ax See GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2023. Post Disaster Needs Assessment. In: GFDRR. [Cited June 2023]. www.gfdrr.org/en/post-disaster-needs-assessments
^ay See World Bank. 2023. The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. In: World Bank. [Cited June 2023]. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/home